The last chance is drawing near for Coalition MPs to get rid of the leader described in Liberal Party research as “old and dishonest”.

If John Howard is not deposed in the party room during the next fortnight while Parliament sits in Canberra there will be no further opportunity. Today’s leak of Liberal pollster Mark Textor’s evaluation — reported by the chief political reporter of the Daily Telegraph Malcolm Farr — frankly criticises the Prime Minister. It may well be the last throw of the dice by a discontented government insider.

The headlines in the various Murdoch tabloids this morning could hardly be worse for a Government now well and truly in election mode. “Leaked dossier reveals Howard’s desperation” said the Tele. “Old Tricky and Losing” screamed the Melbourne Herald Sun. In The Adelaide Advertiser the Prime Minister was “Dishonest and Too Old”. Only in the Hobart Mercury did this genuine scoop not make the front page.

Malcolm Farr’s story contains a damning critique of the Prime Minister as old and dishonest, while Mr Rudd is seen as genuine and accessible. According to the confidential report, “Federal State of Play — Oz Track 33” by pollster Mark Textor on June 21, the Government had to stop Labor setting the agenda, stress its economic management record and paint Labor as a risk — or face electoral oblivion.

Mr Textor warned there was a broad expectation Labor would win the election and the Government had to fight back. In a section encouraging the Government to take on the states, the report said the Government had “bought” policy dominance on water, health and roads failings.

It now needed to “emphasise that the Commonwealth is bailing out ineffective and inefficient states”. The report confirmed age was an issue between Mr Howard, 68, and Mr Rudd, about to turn 50. And it tracked groups — including the so-called aspirational voters who helped elect Mr Howard in 1996 — who have shifted to Labor.

Now in one sense there is little in this Textor report that should surprise political observers. The public opinion pollsters have been releasing similar findings for months. What is a surprise is that someone in the Liberal Party hierarchy chose to confirm the published polls by making the internal research information publicly available … one day before the Parliament’s winter session opens in Canberra.

The motive is sure to be top of the gossip list as government members return and perhaps there will be one final attempt to persuade Mr Howard to step down and allow Treasurer Peter Costello to play the role of saviour for the next couple of months. For politicians who believe their career is coming to an inglorious end, any chance of survival is better than no chance of survival.

Yet there is another possible explanation for the revelations to Malcolm Farr. The growing belief among voters that Labor will actually win the election — a belief that Textor drew attention to — does create a climate in which people might consider whether that is really what they want to happen. The clouds on the economic horizon caused by talk of rising interest rates and falling stock market prices might yet create the uncertainty which favours the devil we know.

The underdog effect has won elections before this one and there is no surer way of reinforcing the underdog status of the Coalition than by using your own Coalition research to claim it.

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