The Liberal Party has doubled the number of seats it is treating as marginal in the face of Labor’s consistent poll leads, according to The Australian .

” Up to 40 seats will now be given extra support and focused campaign assistance as opinion polls continue to show Labor with an election-winning lead,” the paper reports.

There’s Wentworth. What are the other 39 steps to government?

“The number of seats potentially in play is very large, on a huge range of current margins, and both parties are sensible to widen their gaze,” Peter Brent of Mumble Politics says.

“Sometimes commentators take the pendulum too literally,” he warns. “On election night the variety of seat movement is always big. For example, in 2004 a national swing of under 2% to the government included everything from a 4.5% swing to Labor in Gilmore in NSW to 9% to the Liberals in Canning, WA. Neither of these changed hands.” 

Brent points out how at the last change of government, in 1996, the range was from 13% to the Liberal Party in Fadden in Queensland to several seats in WA and Victoria that moved towards the Keating government.

“With a more than 15% discrepancy like this, all sorts of individual outcomes can be thrown up,” he says.

He also points to the three seats that did change hands with swings over 10% in 1996: the 4-wheel drive, home-renovating, aspirational – and neighbouring – outer south-west Sydney trio of Hughes, Lindsay and Macarthur.

Brent suggests that some seats in Qld and SA are likely to swing to Labor by very large amounts, while Tasmania and perhaps Victoria not so much. He also believes regional and inner city electorates are more likely to go to Labor than outer suburban mortgage belters.

“Combine those variables and you’ve got a huge range of potential seat results,” he says.

Brent’s 40 seats to watch, ranging from the highest Labor two party preferred vote to the lowest, are: Ballarat, Isaacs, Holt, Richmond, Adelaide, Bendigo, Cowan, Macquarie, Hindmarsh, Swan, Kingston, Bonner, Wakefield, Makin, Parramatta, Braddon, Hasluck, Stirling, Wentworth, Bass, Moreton, Solomon, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Bennelong, Dobell, Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite, Boothby, Page, Blair, La Trobe, Paterson, Herbert, Kalgoorlie, McEwen, Longman, Cowper and Sturt.

William Bowe from The Poll Bludger has a similar list.

His Labor held seats to watch are Swan, Cowan, Bendigo, Macquarie and Brand; while he has Kingston, Bonner, Wakefield, Makin, Parramatta, Braddon, Hasluck, Stirling, Wentworth, Bass, Moreton, Solomon, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Bennelong, Dobell, Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite, Boothby, Page, Blair, La Trobe, Herbert, Paterson, McEwen, Cowper, Longman, Sturt, Petrie, Flynn and Gippsland on the Coalition side of the ledger.

Bowe also advises poll watchers to keep an eye on Bowman, Canning and Leichhardt, but he also has a list of notable exclusions. These include the 6.3% WA Liberal seat of Kalgoorlie.

“Western Australia is not likely to swing as much,” he says.

The mining boom is of general benefit to the Libs, especially with IR. The Labor candidate for Robertson in NSW, the celebrated Belinda Neal, does not impress Bowe much.

You can find out about all these seats and the full house at Crikey’s Guide to the 2007 Federal Election site.

Leave your comment on this story at the Crikey Politics Free For All now.