The Coalition’s primary vote is up by 3.5 points in the wake of John Howard’s announcement he will hand over the prime ministership at some stage during the next term if he wins the forthcoming election, the latest Morgan Poll has found.

The Coalition’s primary vote has lifted to 39.5%, while support for the ALP is down 1.5 points to 49.5%.

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 6% (unchanged), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%); Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and other parties and independents 2% (down 1.5%).

Labor leads the Government 56.5% (down 2.5%) to 43.5% (up 2.5%) in two party preferred terms.

Fewer electors now think the ALP will win the next Federal election (63%, down 3%), while 26% (up 1.5%) think the Government will be returned, while 11% (up 1.5%) can’t say.

More electors (52.5%, up 4.5%) now think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while fewer (32%, down 5%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction”.

Nineteen per cent (up 2%) of all electors say Australia is heading in the right direction yet say they would vote for Labor if an election were held today.

The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be soft Labor voters – the key to the federal election.

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of September 15/16, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 844 electors.

Meanwhile, Peter Brent from Mumble Elections writes:

Today’s Mumble poll-mix is of four surveys taken in the fortnight to last Sunday, including the Morgan poll released today. Weighting for sample size and date taken, and notionally allocating preferences from the pollsters’ primary data (more on methodology here ), the most recent set of numbers is 56 to 44 two party preferred in Labor’s favour.

A not unfamiliar story, but at least, from the government’s point of view, the gap is not, after all, widening.