The current role of Labor’s last two Prime Ministers continues to provide an interesting contrast. Bob Hawke, now comfortably in to his seventies but still capable of a hole in one, is very much in demand by Labor candidates around the country — shaking hands and delivering his folksy patter.

In contrast, Paul Keating seems to stay put in Sydney where, when he delivers his views from on high, the Labor Party hierarchy shudders in fear.

The most recent expedition by the man with the silver bodgie haircut was to South Australia and Western Australia and who better to review what he did and found than the man himself?

Writing his weekly column on the site of internet bookmaker Sportsbet Mr Hawke commented thus:

First, lets look at the evidence of the polls – of which there have been two since my report last week.

The two polls – Galaxy and a new Herald/Nielson online poll – show an identical result in two party preferred (TPP) terms with Labor leading the coalition 58 to 42, which reflect an identical primary vote split of 55 – 37.

In one sense the most interesting features of the two polls is that they are almost spot on with the last six month average – 57-43 – of the four polls ie Herald/Nielson, Galaxy, Newspoll and Morgan. In other words it is not just the magnitude of Labor’s TPP lead, but its overall consistency through a six month period that must be causing the Prime Minister and his colleagues a certain loss of sleep.

My recent personal experience gives me the feeling that the polls have probably got it about right. I have just returned to Sydney from a few days campaigning. I was first in South Australia in the seat of Wakefield, marginally held by the Liberals. I can honestly say that after a long stroll and interchange with people in a large supermarket with the Labor candidate – Nick Champion – I cannot remember a better reception. I will be very surprised if that’s not a win for Labor on election night.

I then had three days campaigning in five electorates in Perth and again while perhaps not as overwhelming as in Wakefield, and acknowledging that the poll figures for WA are not as strong for Labor as in the rest of Australia, I still got the impression that Labor will hold all its seats with the possibility of picking up another couple.

I suggest you watch Stirling where Labor has an outstanding candidate in Major Peter Tinley. He was lead tactical planner for Australia’s Special Forces contribution to both Afghanistan and Iraq and was later Deputy Commander of the 550 strong Australian Joint Special Forces Task Group in Iraq.

Bob Hawke
26 September 2007