In anybody’s experience, the past three months have been an amazing quarter for the Australian stock market. It started with a record high, plunged 15 per cent and then finished with new records, absorbing an international credit confidence crisis, horse flu and the rugby world cup pool games along the way.
AMP’s Shane Oliver observed that the rebound featured a 20 per cent rally in just six weeks – and it was a 34 per cent surge in US dollar terms. That is amazing.
And it’s the US dollar story which is now playing a large role in what all markets are doing. The greenback has set record lows against the Euro for seven sessions in a row. Much of the latest commodity price surge is really about the greenback’s weakness. And the next round of international capital flows will contain a lot of forex thinking.
China’s US$200 billion sovereign investment fund officially starts today. It’s reasonable to suspect it will be looking to diversify from US assets, so prepare for a new wave of investment without private equiteers.
Australia’s commodities have already been on China’s shopping list, with some interesting ramifications for public policy. Just how much of the farm is for sale this time? And what interesting times for WA treasurer Eric Ripper as he balances competing Chinese and Japanese interests.
Oh, the joys of being resource rich when the big wallets are being pulled out.
Crikey is committed to hosting lively discussions. Help us keep the conversation useful, interesting and welcoming. We aim to publish comments quickly in the interest of promoting robust conversation, but we’re a small team and we deploy filters to protect against legal risk. Occasionally your comment may be held up while we review, but we’re working as fast as we can to keep the conversation rolling.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please subscribe to leave a comment.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please login to leave a comment.