My prediction for the election date is Saturday 1 December. Here’s my reasoning.

First, there could be an interest rate rise announced by the Reserve Bank Board on the morning of Wednesday November 7. For that reason John Howard will not want to have his election in November. He will want to push it as far away from that interest rate rise as possible. Of course, there may not be an interest rate rise announced then.

However, that merely increases the prospect of an election on the first Saturday in December. Since an interest rate rise may be announced on Wednesday December 5 the election is most unlikely to be held on December 8. In any event that is too close to Christmas.

Second, a Liberal Party friend I know to be reliable tells me the election will definitely be on December 1. Among other things she said was “we have won on that date before so there are good omens to it”.

Actually that is wrong. The only election held on December 1 was the one Andrew Peacock lost to Bob Hawke in 1984. Nevertheless the result then was much better for the Liberals than expected. Perhaps she means the last Menzies win which was on November 30 (which I recall was Saint Andrews Day) in 1963.

After 14 years as Prime Minister Bob Menzies won for himself a “lap of honour” on that day. Since Howard is going now for his “lap of honour” and since November 30 and December 1 are, more-or-less, the same day perhaps that is what Liberals are now saying to each other.