I had a phone call late on Friday from someone who really shouldn’t make disrespectful gags that went something like this:

“Do you think he’ll call the election this weekend?”

“Nope.”

“He’s waiting for the Czar to die. Or, rather, the Czarina.”

“Snigger.”

“Frederick the Great in the Seven Years War.”

“I know, I know. It’s in Carlyle. Or Hugh Trevor-Roper.”

“Snigger.”

If all of this is a riddle, Google “The Miracle of the House of Brandenburg”. That will put you straight. I won’t say any more. It’s just a gag and I don’t want to end up in The Black Book of the Sydney Institute.

To give you a gist, though, Carlyle says: “Brave king! Wait yet a little while, and the days of your suffering will be over. Already the sun of your good fortune stands behind the clouds, and soon will rise upon you.”

One thing Frederick the Great didn’t have to worry about, however, was the ACNielsen.

Today’s poll gives Labor a 12 point two party preferred lead. It has Kevin Rudd ahead of John Howard 52 as preferred prime minister to 39% – his ninth lead running. John Howard believes he can see the sun of his good fortune. It’s called economic management. He’s said that the election will be “a referendum” on which party is best equipped to achieve full employment.

Nielsen gives the Coalition a 40 to 12% lead as the better economic manager. However, the poll also says that 43% of voters say economic performance would be much the same whichever side is in power. What’s more, it says that Australians believe Kevin Rudd is more trustworthy and has a better vision for the country than John Howard.

John Howard has been running on his record. Economic management is part of that. It hasn’t got him far. Voters want to know about the future. About vision. Labor is painting him into a corner. Delaying the election might give him more room for a miracle.

Might. It also makes him look afraid of the future – and simply reinforces that vision thing.

Meanwhile, Peter Brent from Mumble Elections writes:

Today’s poll-mix, which includes today’s Nielsen, Friday’s Morgan and two others from the last fortnight, comes to 56.5 to 43.5. This maintains the slight improvement in Labor support over the last few fortnights, as the graph shows.

Notice that while the red and blue lines began to narrow after the budget was brought down in May, the last few months have moved back the other way.

Maybe the message is that the more voters see and hear Peter Costello spruiking the government’s economic wares, getting them to concentrate on surpluses, deficits and paying off that dreadful Labor debt, the better the government does.

But the “values” stuff, one the other hand, doesn’t work anymore.