Will the PM push the button for a poll this weekend? I’ve spoken to a range of senior Liberals from ministers down over the past 24 hours. Their response, put colloquially, has been “Search me, guv”.

Setting the date of polls is one of the great powers leaders have in our system of government. It’s interesting to note that ever since NSW in the early nineties, when parties have needed to negotiate with independents or crossbenchers to form governments, fixed terms have been part of the price.

AAP gave the PM a nice little help-along on Tuesday when they reported that he would attend the Pacific Islands Forum next week. That was based on comments from the PM’s press office – the bog standard line. DFAT and the Foreign Minister had already provided that the previous week.

Last Friday, Foreign Affairs was telling journos “the PM is going to the forum”. When pressed, they’d admit that that was the assumption they work on up until the moment he says he is not. Alexander Downer exercised his idiosyncratic sense of humour discussing the matter on 2GB, too:

MR DOWNER: The plan obviously is for the Prime Minister to go to the Forum. It’s only for a couple of day at the end of next week and this will really focus on how we’re going in the Solomon Islands, how Tonga itself has been doing and how are we going to respond to the Fiji coup so it is going to be a reasonably difficult meeting with a lot on the agenda.

PRESENTER: Which the Prime Minister may attend?

MR DOWNER: Sure. The plan is for the Prime Minister to attend it, let me assure you. We don’t have to have an election…

The Notice Paper for Monday isn’t exactly chokkas with legislation. Last night’s speech at the Sydney Institute was surely the time for the PM to announce anything that urgently required a bill or two.

The PM doesn’t have to go yet. He could go through this sitting fortnight and still call a poll for December 1.

A trip to Tonga could well have its benefits. Peter Costello is by far the Government’s best performer in the House. Letting him have a few days to run free could well buoy morale, leave Kevin Rudd to run ragged and remind the electorate that John Howard won’t be around for ever.

Whether or not that would be enough to actually win the election when it’s called is a different matter, but it would help government unity and sense of purpose.

At the moment, Liberal sources say, the PM is talking to nobody – other than to steal their announcement. The government isn’t acting as a team. There’s little or no coordination. Everyone is simply concentrating on their seats.

No-one is settling in for a nice, relaxing weekend?