Remembering back to the infamous Crosby Textor Oztrack 33 Research that proudly brought to you by Crikey, one of the more interesting things in that document were the swings in specific demographics that were occurring in each State.

Today we’ll look at the Coalition held seats in Qld through the prism of those demographic swings, and we’ll use the new second release of the census data, by electorate, to get a handle on what we might expect to see in the volatile state of Queensland.

The three swings worth noting in Oztrack 33 for Qld were:

So let’s extract out of the census data using the current electoral distribution:

(1) The percentage of 18-24-year-olds in each Coalition held Qld electorate as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 and over

(2) The percentage of part time workers in each of those electorates as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 and over

(3) An approximation of Lower White/ Upper Blue income workers as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 and over.

And we’ll throw in a couple of really interesting stats as well:

(4) The proportion of the electorate that lived in a different statistical local area (SLA) in 2001

(5) The percentage of the median household income that is taken up by the median housing loan repayment for each seat.

Electorate

Median Loan repayment to median household income %

Lived in a different SLA in 2001

Part Time Workers

18- 24 Age

Lower White/ Upper Blue

Blair

28.64

26.08

17.03

12.45

29.52

Bowman

30.9

39.08

19.73

11.75

33.89

Dawson

28.27

26.94

16.22

11.86

33.59

Dickson

28.93

35.8

21.06

11.29

36.09

Fadden

36.03

50.29

19.25

11.91

32.13

Fairfax

35.54

40.51

20.87

10.2

27.98

Fisher

35.74

39.19

19.36

10.18

27.79

Flynn

25.53

30.4

16.12

11.3

32.2

Forde

30.72

38.64

18.12

11.72

34.88

Groom

28.39

40.9

18.35

13.82

29.07

Herbert

27.68

45.14

17.52

16.87

32.61

Hinkler

37.25

32.65

15.86

8.95

22.47

Leichhardt

30.17

35.71

18.75

12.11

30.65

Longman

35.07

40.79

17.05

11.21

30.71

Maranoa

28.27

28.08

16.7

9.57

24.49

McPherson

37.26

43.11

19.95

11.55

29.7

Moncrief

37.55

41.64

18.26

13.63

27.24

Moreton

30.7

40.72

19.1

16.5

28.21

Petrie

31.1

36.2

18.37

11.33

30.69

Ryan

25.87

43.99

22.6

20.85

24.69

Wide Bay

35.24

33.79

18.37

8.22

23.95

Qld Average

31.46

37.76

18.06

12.7

29.7

And now we’ll do it by Rank, where 1 is the highest proportion and 21 the lowest:

Division

Median Loan repayment to median household income Rank

Lived in a different SLA in 2001 Rank

Part Time Workers Rank

18-24 Age Rank

Lower White/ Upper Blue Rank

Blair

15

21

17

6

12

Bowman

10

11

5

10

3

Dawson

17

20

19

9

4

Dickson

14

14

2

15

1

Fadden

4

1

7

8

7

Fairfax

6

9

3

17

15

Fisher

5

10

6

18

16

Flynn

21

18

20

14

6

Forde

11

12

14

11

2

Groom

16

6

12

4

13

Herbert

19

2

15

2

5

Hinkler

3

17

21

20

21

Leichhardt

13

15

9

7

10

Longman

8

7

16

16

8

Maranoa

18

19

18

19

19

McPherson

2

4

4

12

11

Moncrief

1

5

13

5

17

Moreton

12

8

8

3

14

Petrie

9

13

10

13

9

Ryan

20

3

1

1

18

Wide Bay

7

16

11

21

20

Looking at these results, it’s suddenly not very difficult to believe that Ryan is apparently swinging by a large amount with all those part time workers and young voters, and these results certainly explain Herbert’s apparent big swing with its large young population, relatively high Lower White/Upper Blue collar worker belt and the enormous influx of new residents into the seat.

But the big question is – has anyone done any polling in Fadden?

Fadden is hit by Workchoices in the relatively high Lower White/Upper Blue collar demographic it enjoys as well as via the relatively high amount of part time workers, it has the largest amounts of new residents of any Coalition held seat in Qld, it has a goodly amount of the dreaded 18-24s, and poor housing affordability to boot.

If there was a Coalition held seat in Qld that would be expected to swing simply as a consequence of its demographics, Fadden would be it hands down.