The first major poll since this week’s interest rate rise shows a two point drop in the Coalition’s primary vote.

Telephone polling by Roy Morgan Research  on Wednesday and last night puts the Coalition’s primary vote on 39%, down 2% since the last telephone Morgan Poll on October 24/25; Labor is at 44.5%, up 0.5%.

The Greens primary vote is unchanged on 10.5%; Democrats are up 0.5% to 2%, Family first are up a similar amount to 1.5% with independents and others on 2.5%.

Labor has a 12% lead in two party preferred terms, polling 56% — up 1.5% since the last telephone Morgan Poll on October 24/25 – while the Coalition is on 44% (down 1.5%).

A majority of electors (58.5%, down 5%) think Labor will win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, up 1.5%) believe the Coalition will be returned, while 13% (up 3.5%) can’t say.

55.5% of voters (down 8%) think Australia is heading in the right direction, while 31% (up 3%) think Australia is heading in the wrong direction. – 13.5% (up 5%) are undecided.

19% of all electors (down 4%) say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today – the soft Labor voters who may yet decide the election.

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted November 7/8, 2007, with 552 Australian electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% did not name a party.

Peter Brent from Mumble Elections writes:

The most recent poll-mix, of three surveys taken during the week ending yesterday evening – a Galaxy, a Newspoll and a Morgan – comes to 54.5 to 45.5 two party preferred in Labor’s favour.

Morgan’s phone polls tend to be a couple of points more favourable to the Coalition than their face to face ones.

And Morgan has the Greens on 10.5%, while Newspoll, the only polling outfit which doesn’t include Greens in their voting intention – “which of these parties will you vote for”- question (and so respondents have to come up with the party themselves) has the party’s support at about half this level.

The other pollsters show Green support somewhere in between. That’s probably where it will end up on election day.