Australia’s decision to sign the Kyoto Protocol builds up expectation for major international outcomes from the UNFCCC conference in Bali. So too does the UNFCCC delegate bicycle exchange program and the Toyota Priuses being used as transport vehicles. (And has anyone noticed that “Prius” rhymes with “pious”?)

However, the on-ground reality is quite different: the bicycles are hardly being used and shuttle buses are 1980s gas-guzzling behemoths. Similarly, day one of the conference was (as with most international policy conferences) a subdued affair. The groups making the most noise were, as always, the environmental NGOs. Expect that to continue as the two weeks wear on, with activity (such as WWF’s warming globe exhibit) timed perfectly to coincide with the arrivals of particular world leaders and representatives.

But those members of the media and the public expecting a major announcement that will somehow end the world’s problems will be sorely disappointed. The expectation of a “Kyoto Part 2” is off the mark. Here’s why.

In the lead-up to the conference, Britain and Germany have effectively been boxing the largest developing nations – China, India and Brazil – into a corner. They have been demanding that these economies fall into line with the developed world and commit to deep, binding emissions targets. Britain and Germany will not budge from this position until they see what happens with the US Presidential race; under a Democrat administration they may find an ally in the US President (but may still find Congress to be a sticking point).

The major developing economies will not budge either; they would not commit to deep cuts for Kyoto, and have no compelling reason to do so now. This is effectively a stalemate, and for those wanting “Kyoto Part 2”, this is the stalemate that needs to be resolved. If the stalemate is to be broken, a broader approach, where countries (and developing countries in particular) can effectively determine how they respond to climate change without impeding development goals needs to be adopted.

The likely final outcome? An agreement to commence negotiations. And it will, of course, be painted as a major success.