For what has been, on the whole, a very successful political party, the Liberal Party has a decidedly mixed record on leadership.

Brendan Nelson is its eleventh federal leader. Only four of his predecessors – Menzies, Holt, Fraser and Howard – could reasonably be regarded as successful. The other six won precisely one election between them, and that was the “Don’s Party” election of 1969, when John Gorton narrowly held on in the face of a 7.1% swing to Labor (still the ALP’s best post-war result).

The most obvious parallel with Nelson is Alexander Downer. Each won the leadership in a ballot by defeating the member for Wentworth; John Hewson and Malcolm Turnbull were both people with ideas about having the Liberal Party live up to its name, and both were supported by the party’s left. (Another blow to those who think the left-right divide is about economics.)

Downer was a paid-up member of the right in a way that Nelson is not, but each man’s victory was an expression of the party’s innate conservatism. Downer promised that the era of policy experimentation under Hewson would come to an end; Nelson promises that no such era under Turnbull will begin.

Downer soon demonstrated that he was not up to the job, but his “relaxed and comfortable” view of the party’s destiny found full expression in his successor, John Howard. Nelson’s victory in turn expresses a wish that the Howard legacy should continue, and the party avoid facing up to any real examination of what it stands for.

Nelson too may well turn out to be a stopgap. Turnbull is clearly down but not out, while the right still harbors ambitions for its favorite son, Tony Abbott. Like Downer, Nelson comes to the job with a shortage of leadership experience and the image of a lightweight; time will tell if that image really does him justice.

The biggest difference in 13 years is how close the party came to embracing serious change: Turnbull lost by just three votes (also an innovation – voting results are traditionally kept secret).

The forces of denial are still in a majority, but only just. That bodes well for the party’s longer-term future, but in the meantime things could get very messy.