All year there has been a debate raging in Crikey’s Comments section on the prospects for the uranium industry. Plenty has been happening outside, too. On Tuesday, Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith told India that Australia was cancelling the deal struck by the Howard to begin selling uranium to the country.

“It’s a long standing commitment of the Australian Labor Party that we don’t authorise the export of uranium to countries who are not parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,” he said.

The same day industry analyst Warwick Grigor presented a report on the industry saying the sector’s share market performance will only improve if the Government allows it to flourish. Most uranium exporters have performed badly of late, with some companies losing up to half of their market value.

Grigor says there is a strong view in the market that new Environment Minister Peter Garrett will frustrate new uranium projects despite Labor dropping its “no new uranium mines” policy last year. Garrett says he will follow the letter of the law with uranium mining applications.

Late last year, the Australian Uranium Association said it was optimistic uranium mining would be allowed in Queensland in the future “… if we continue to make the case, make the economic case for uranium, make the climate case for uranium,” executive director Michael Angwin said.

Both Queensland and Western Australia have uranium bans. The Rann Labor Government in South Australia, however, is doing everything it can to facilitate mining. Rann lead the successful push to overturn Labor’s uranium policy at last year’s conference. His government has established a plan for accelerated mining exploration and resources development with guidance from former Normandy boss Robert Champion de Crespigny.