With the credit crunch continuing to claim fresh corporate victims, here’s an updated triage list that has just fallen off the back of a gurney outside the ASX:
Allco Finance Group and all its satellites: Debt of $4 billion to $7 billion (depending on the time of day and whether departed founder, David Coe is in the room). No hope unless it can get an emergency transfusion of $1 billion by selling off assets. But that would leave nothing but debt in place. Holy water might be helpful, so would Dracula and a free supply of cash.
Centro Properties, Centro Retail Trust: Interim losses of almost $1.3 billion and possibly the same again. It needs a transfusion from its banks and the odd act of grace on debt repayments but has real assets in place, especially in Australia. There may be some value, somewhere, but at least it’s still trading.
MFS: Undergoing a name change because it sold its name to a similarly named US fund manager with a reputation. Has raised $400 million by selling off troubled asset Stella and got rid of some debt. No hope because confidence is all and these boys are from the Gold Coast and you can’t teach an old pair of white shoes new tricks. Suspended.
City Pacific: Ditto. Shane Warne once denied saying: “Can’t bowl, can’t bat”. The folk at City Pacific can’t add up, can’t prepare a real set of accounts (two sets, lodged with the ASX two weeks apart, showing vastly different figures). Deconsolidated a trust to remove exposure, now wants to freeze investor withdrawals because it can’t pay for them. No dough, no show. Not even the thought of holy water can save this one. Suspended.
ABC Learning Centres: If life was simple this would be a shoe-in as a business model: borrow a lot, spend it on paying too much for buildings, many of them not even built, and then put out a set of accounts and interim profit figures that recall the great “rubbery” description of the 1977 budget from then Treasurer, Phillip Lynch. Sell off the US centres or it could “synergise” by merging with Allco — they have a similar understanding of debt and asset values (and City Pacific for that matter). That way those great minds, Eddie Groves and David Coe, could be brought together in the same room! Suspended.
Asciano: An odd entrant, but then vaulting ambition and a David Coe-like ability to ignore the growing credit crunch saw the company and former Toll right-hand man, Mark Rowsthorn, embark on an audacious attempt to sneak up on Brambles. Has around $400 million in Brambles shares … or is that $300 million? What’s the Brambles share price again? $139 million interim loss resulting from split with Toll and much higher costs show the group is badly managed. No wonder the shares fell 57c to $3.99 yesterday, an all time low.
Seven Network: Not really one for the basketcase list, but after revealing $715 million of the cash raised from selling half of Seven and Pacific Magazines to KKR was invested in the market (and had nice profit in the December half), Seven Network shares have crashed, losing $460 million in value up till yesterday. Brokers have issued sells and wonder if Kerry Stokes is driving the price down to privatise it. That would only take $1.6 billion (on a generous day). Seven closed at $10.66 yesterday, down 22c.
Australia: If it wasn’t serious, it would be a joke. Net debt of $610 billion: 56% (or so) of the domestic economy. Current account deficit running above Banana Republic levels at 7% or thereabouts of GDP even though the terms of trade are at a 50 year high … Inflation stubbornly rising. Household debt at new highs, low federal government debt, but states and local government heavily indebted. Name your price. Just wait until the hedge funds spot the Aussie dollar above 94 cents with a weak trade account.
Australia’s banks: What possessed them to abandon their usual weaknesses in good times of lending too much money on commercial property and residential? Out of their depth playing with financial engineers and wannabe Macquarie Bank imitators like Allco, Centro and MFS. When a bank has a dividend yield north of 7% (as St George has) is the world ending as we know it, or is that the great buying opportunity of all time? Here’s what Merrill Lynch said about our banks this morning: “Australian banks traded at a significant premium to their global peers through the latter part of 2007; however this gap has closed quickly during February. Whilst Australian banks are accepted as having little direct exposure to subprime assets, offshore equity investors have questioned the relative premium of Australian banks given the potential for provisioning to rise with the household sector highly leveraged.” You name your price.
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