With two new clubs set to enter the competition in the next few years, the AFL is in danger of creating a perfect storm for itself on the issue of tanking.

The new franchises are already making ambit claims to monopolise huge numbers of early draft picks to help establish themselves. The Gold Coast consortium (GC17) request to have 20 of the first 24 picks in the 2010 draft has alarm bells ringing at all AFL clubs. The fear is that in order to set up the new clubs, current AFL clubs will be asked to make do with the leftovers at draft time.

So like eager shoppers at a Boxing Day Sale, those clubs worried about their playing stocks now have their face pressed up against the front doors wanting to get in first to grab the last draft bargains before they’re gone, some time around 2010. And the only way to do that is position yourself well for the draft. Enter tanking.

It must be remembered that tanking is completely rational behaviour. By rewarding clubs which finish lower down the ladder with access to the better players, the AFL gives clubs an incentive to underperform. But you’ll never hear a player (other than Jason Akermanis), a club, or the League admit that it happens.

Outspoken Bulldog star and Brownlow medallist Jason Akermanis added to the controversy this week by telling Melbourne radio that he was certain that tanking was a problem in the AFL. Most footy fans hold this to be a self-evident truth. 

Take, for example, the West Coast Eagle’s loss to Essendon last weekend. The sight of Eagles midfield star Andrew Emberley playing in the back pocket had talkback radio buzzing with claims that the Eagles weren’t serious about winning the match.

The accusation is that West Coast wants to finish low on the ladder to maximize their position in the AFL draft of 2008. Like I said, it’s a rational course of action. But coach John Worsfold has angrily denied it. He, like others in his position and those at AFL House, follow a well-trodden path of denial which serves to protect their own integrity, that of the clubs and the AFL.

This is where the introduction of new AFL teams makes things interesting. Finishing mid-table over the next few years is sure to be footy’s equivalent of a poverty trap.

The current draft system makes it impossible to ignore that, while there’s still a race to the top for the ultimate prize, there’s going to be just as big a race to the bottom for draft riches before those riches are plundered by two more clubs looking to build a playing list. 

What’s a sporting organisation like the AFL to do?