The Reserve Bank must be worried about something — there are six speeches scheduled in the next two weeks for senior executives of the central bank including governor-in-chief, Glenn Stevens.
All the senior executives of the bank, including Deputy Governor Ric Battelino, assistant governors Guy Debelle and Malcolm Edey, as well as Phil Lowe, are scheduled to hit podiums across the country. The RBA’s head of economic analysis, Anthony Richards, is set to make his first foray into the public arena.
The frequency of the speaking list hasn’t been seen for quite a while, if at all from the RBA and its senior executives.
The speeches will come after the release of minutes from the board meeting earlier this month that halted the rate-cutting process by the central bank.
They must have a point or two to make on housing, the economy generally and the changes to the payments system which has been giving the RBA some angst as the banks. Other intermediaries have tended to drag their feet on adjusting fees and charges after recent reforms.
Mr Stevens had a go at the banks in his recent appearance before the House of Representatives Economic Committee.
The minutes of its March meeting which left rates unchanged will contain more detailed discussion of the reasons behind that decision.
It was a call that has been undermined partly by the poor growth figures for December (which came out a day later) and the higher-than-expected unemployment rate for February of 5.2%.
But taken together they do not tell a story on an economy crashing, more sliding: consumer confidence remains solid, even though at lower than optimistic levels. Business conditions are glum, but confidence is up a fraction, probably because of the start of the second stimulus payments.
No doubt the RBA’s team of speakers will also argue that there’s increasing evidence the stimulus package in December will work.
RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey starts the sequence on Thursday with a speech to the Foundation For Aged Care breakfast in Sydney. The speech is timed for 7.50am, so it catches the start of the markets.
On March 24, Phil Lowe, the Assistant Governor overseeing the financial system speaks to a payments system conference in Sydney. It will be his second outing in around a month.
A day later Glenn Stevens also speaks on the payments system when he gives the Ian Little Memorial lecture in Melbourne.
A day after that Anthony Richards addresses a Sydney housing conference in a paper entitled “The Outlook for the housing sector and the Domestic Economy.”
It seems a bit self-evident, but Richards will no doubt talk about the strong impact of the first home buyers grant on new and existing housing activity, as well as point out the latest arrears on home lending and talk about the improved affordability.
On March 31, we have two senior RBA officials speaking: Ric Battelino, the Deputy Governor who will talk in Brisbane, while in Sydney, Guy Debelle, the Assistant Governor in charge of Financial Markets addresses a finance industry lunch in Sydney. It will be Mr Debelle’s second speech in about six weeks: his last was written by him but delivered by another senior executive.
The speeches will make a pretty good job at softening up the markets, investors and anyone else interested ahead of the April 7 board meeting, when a rate cut of up to 0.50% is expected by the market.
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