Three big elections in the space of a month: Indonesia, then India, and now South Africa, the last to commence voting but the first to report results. This was the country’s fourth post-apartheid election, and widely expected to be the most interesting, but the outcome showed very little change. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) was returned with 65.9% of the vote, down just 3.8% on its 2004 vote. Adam Carr as usual has the figures: That will give it 265 of the 400 seats (down 13); the Democratic Alliance, in second place, has just 67 (up 17). The Congress of the People, a breakaway from the ANC formed with high expectations last year, faded to win just 7.4% of the vote and 30 seats.

ANC leader Jacob Zuma will be the new president. Constitutionally, South Africa is unusual, having an executive president and no prime minister, but also no strict separation between legislature and executive: the president is elected by parliament, which functions more or less in Westminster fashion. The president can be thought of as a sort of super-John Howard, who has taken over the functions and title of the head of state.

Previewing the election in last Wednesday’s Age, Russell Skelton said that “Polls suggest Mr Zuma’s team might be struggling to get more than 64 per cent of the vote”. In most countries, a party with 64% of the vote wouldn’t be described as “struggling”, but to see why the word came to mind here it’s useful to understand some electoral history.

There’s a common pattern across Africa and much of Asia: where countries that were freed from colonialism developed a political party based on the liberation movement, that party proved almost impossible to displace electorally. Some continued to win democratic elections, while others outlawed all opposition; many were removed by military coups. But some rule their countries to this day: FRELIMO in Mozambique, SWAPO in Namibia, even (shakily) Congress in India.

In South Africa the oppressors were native whites rather than colonial powers, but the dynamic was the same, and the accumulated prestige and organisational power of the movement that led the struggle for democracy has been strong enough to withstand serious challenge.

The opposition scored two important milestones last week: the ANC has (just) fallen below a two-thirds majority, and therefore lost the ability to amend the constitution on its own; and the Democratic Alliance has won a majority in one of the provincial (state) parliaments, Western Cape, where its leader Helen Zille will become premier.

As such liberation movements go, the ANC has behaved creditably in power, and despite its huge majority in parliament it has not sought to de-legitimise the opposition; elections continue to be fair and democratic. While many observers have concerns about Zuma, it is only fair to point out he was one of the few in the ANC to criticise the autocracy of Robert Mugabe in neighboring Zimbabwe, at a time when the supposedly “moderate” leadership under Thabo Mbeki refused to speak out.

Nonetheless, South Africa faces major challenges, and its prospects for surmounting them can only be helped by the emergence of a strong opposition that will be a credible competitor for office. The ANC can be proud of its achievements over the last 15 years, but no record justifies remaining in power for ever.