El Nino looking more and more likely. They are cautious people at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology — as properly they should be — when it comes to making long-range predictions about the climate, but its latest report on the El Nino weather effect points out that the tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface remains warmer than average and exceeds El Niño thresholds in central to eastern regions. The central Pacific has warmed further, it reported on October 28, and now exceeds average values by the largest amount since late 2006. The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific had warmed further in central regions over the past two weeks, and now exceed 4°C above normal in some regions.

The Southern Oscillation Index fell rapidly through October and that fall has continued into November with the latest reading now being below -15.

Sustained negative values of the SOI often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia.

The American-based Climate Forecast System of the NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centre is similarly pointing to a strengthening possibility of an El Nino impact.

Its mean prediction, the heavy blue line, predicts that El Nino will last at least through the northern spring of next year. That tallies with a prediction by NASA back in January that “Given our expectation of the next El Niño beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.”

Stopping the people smugglers. Be bold to stop the people smugglers, my new journalistic colleague Peter Costello tells his readers this morning. That read like good advice to me that should be followed by Kevin Rudd. While leaving the 78 to sweat on their stationary ship, boldly announce that Australia will take an increased number of Tamils from their camps in Sri Lanka.

Give a practical demonstration that playing by the rules is the best way to migrate to this country. And while we are at it, pick an assortment from those languishing in those apparently rather dreadful Indonesian camps. Give some hope that playing by our so-called rules might actually achieve something.

Attacking the media. There’s an interesting experiment going on in Argentina where President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is not just in a talking war with a major media group but positively acting it. The populist President has pushed Argentina’s soccer association to sever its long-term contract with the country’s biggest media group and broadcast free all games on a state-run station.

The mob think it is a marvelous development but it is playing havoc with pay-television revenues. Our Prime Minister should follow the outcome with interest as his government prepares to consider the future of sporting events on free-to-air television.