PM would lose his own seat: Crikey-Morgan poll

February 19, 2007

Prime Minister John Howard would lose his own seat of Bennelong if a federal election was held today, a Crikey-Morgan Poll has found.

And it gets worse for the PM: a majority of voters in his electorate say Kevin Rudd would be a better prime minister — and 38% of the PM’s own constituents believe he should retire before the federal election.

The findings come from a telephone poll of 394 Bennelong electors conducted by Roy Morgan Research last Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Labor support in Bennelong is running at 55% on a two-party preferred basis, compared with 45% for the Liberal Party,

Forty per cent of Bennelong electors would give their first preferences to the Prime Minister (down 9.9% since the last election). Forty one per cent would cast a primary vote for Labor (up 12.6% since 2004), 11% for the Greens and 5% for others. Only a low 3% of voters were undecided.

A higher proportion of Bennelong voters say Labor leader Kevin Rudd would be a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard — 49% to 47%.

More Bennelong electors disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister than approve — 47% to 44%. In contrast, 75% approve of the job Mr Rudd is doing as Opposition leader, compared to just 11% who disapprove and 14% who can’t say.

Full results and tables are available here.

To celebrate Crikey’s 10th birthday, every day for the rest of the year we’ll be dipping into the vault to publish an item from the very same date from one of the past 10 years.