Jim Bacon’s Tasmanian bombshell

Stephen Mayne writes:

February 23, 2004

Tasmania has been shocked by the resignation of Premier Jim Bacon due  to lung cancer. But what does it mean for the island state’s political landscape?

The Australian broke ranks on Saturday and reported the big Tasmanian  story that has been announced tomorrow — the resignation of Premier Jim  Bacon who has lung cancer. One of The Australian’s Canberra-based political reporters, Samantha Maiden, had the by-line in The Weekend Australian: “Premier to step aside for health“.

We say “broke ranks” because most of the Tasmanian media were onto the  story but a Government ring-around late last week warned everyone off  until the Premier was ready.

This infuriated The Mercury which pulled in chief reporter Ellen Whinnett to produce the big splash in The Sunday Tasmanian which you can read here. There are numerous other stories in the Sunday Tasmanian on the biggest political story to hit Tassie since Jim Bacon took power in 1998.

Ellen Whinnett has an excellent profile on the next Tassie Premier, pro-logging hard man Paul Lennon: “Lennon steps up to mark again“. Then there’s this story on the power vacuum at the top: “Labor power vacuum at top“. And what about this glowing tribute to Bacon by Wayne Crawford: “Premier turned Tasmania around“. Crikey is sometimes criticised for publishing unsubstantiated rumors but this story is an example of our restraint. This email came through on Thursday:

“I have had advice from an impeccable source, that Jim Bacon has incurable cancer and that his 2 sons have returned from overseas, other relatives are also visiting before it is announced.”

Not knowing the source, we were still checking it out when The Australian produced the story on Saturday. We had the yarn but were beaten to it. Oh well. Then again, being beaten is better than being wrong when dealing with an issue like the resignation of a premier and cancer.

TASMANIA APRES BACON

Lou from Launceston writes:

The departure of Tasmanian Premier, Jim Bacon, from politics to tackle lung cancer is, to state the bleeding obvious, going to change the whole political landscape in Tasmania.

Bacon WAS politics in Tasmania, very much in the way Beattie is in Queensland, and for many Tasmanians would be about the only politician they could readily name. Much has been written about Bacon’s skills: his firm grip, his presidential style, his willingness to make bold decisions; and his weakness: his propensity for secrecy and his hyper-sensitivity to criticism; but rising above all this was the very obvious fact that Bacon ENJOYED being premier and was extremely comfortable in the role.

Many people aspire to leadership but when achieved never look like they belong there. Jim Bacon, just like John Howard, Peter Beattie and Bill Clinton, for example, are completely at ease in the role of leader. But politics is politics and it is time to make some assessment of the future.

First to deputy, Paul Lennon, who will take over as premier. He is usually described as a “hard man” or less charitably a “thug”. Many doubt if he can make the change from bad cop to good. But those who know Lennon believe he can. He is more like Bacon in character than most people realise. He is intelligent and hard working, and has a keenly honed political eye. In fact, he can be much “nicer” than Bacon as he takes criticism better, but he will still be sharp and cutting to his political foes.

His faults? A bit too smart for his own good, sometimes, and enjoys putting people down. He will clearly miss the the advice and support of David Crean and Jim Bacon, but he has the intellectual strength to carry the premiership off.

The Mercury’s Ellen Whinnett predicts a softer Lennon will emerge here: “Lennon’s softer new look“.

Next to the deputy-elect, the veteran Health Minister David Llewellyn. Very much a surprise choice as the press were predicting elevation for the younger and more media-friendly Education Minister Paula Wreidt or Forestry Minister Bryan Green.

Even Franklin MHA Harry Quick thought a “generational change” would have been better in the deputy post, drawing comparisons with the success of Mark Latham. But the often tongue-tied Llewellyn has one big advantage over his younger colleagues: he can take on a mountain of work.

Lennon knows it is going to be tough going at the top from here on in and the last thing he needs is a deputy shy of work. Green, despite being considered by some in the media as a high flyer, has only learned recently how much work there is in being a minister of the Crown. He botched the large portfolio of primary industry and environment and was moved to resources, which has a higher profile and spun as a promotion by Bacon, but is in fact less grunt work.

It should be noted that, in the previous government, Llewellyn had primary industry, environment, parks and wildlife, police and treasury in the Lower House — phew! Now he handles the impossible health portfolio, a big enough task in itself, as well as police and managing government business in the House.

Wreidt has made education her own, and is doing a creditable job, but it is a relatively easy ride as far as portfolios go. It is interesting that Bacon recently took from her the task of government business in the house and foisted it onto poor old Llewellyn. No, Lennon clearly wants a level head and a fellow workaholic as deputy. Llewellyn is consistently and persistently underestimated by everyone, but will rise to this occasion.

Now to the Greens. Having Lennon as premier is great news for Pegg Putt and her Green team. It gives them a much clearer target to focus their hatred and should help them galvanise their supporters. Remember, the Greens play 16% politics, not 50% politics like the major parties (and when will they wake up to that?), so anything that can polarise and emotionalise the environmental debate is a plus.

The Liberals. Today’s Examiner, in their six-page coverage of the Bacon retirement, had a story titled, “Opposition may not be ready to take opportunity.” Unfortunately it is not on their online edition. There is no by-line, but surely has been written by political journo Chris Johnson.

It quotes University of Tasmania political analyst Tony McCall: “There is no doubt that they (the Libs) have scored a penalty without really falling in the box. But Tasmanians have always been attracted to strong leaders. Rene’s (Hidding) a nice bloke but he’s not a strong leader. And there are a couple of younger members in the Opposition’s team who need to be performing better if there is to be any advantage for them out of the current situation.”

Prediction? Certainly changes in leadership style and personality at the top. Expect Lennon to be a capable and strong leader, and for Labor to feel its way for a while. Like all new leaders Lennon will have a honeymoon period as the media, and the voters, get to know him in the role. His honeymoon will be enhanced more than it might, because the press will show deference to the ailing Bacon. (Someone taking over in these circumstances will get a much easier ride than leadership grabbed in a coup.)

There IS a danger Lennon and Labor will blow it, but the more likely scenario is that it will be business as usual. Labor’s tourism-led economic recovery is working at the moment so don’t expect any major changes in direction. The government is also building a large surplus in time for some sweeteners at the next election. Lennon has the luxury of taking over in good times with little, except for the perennial health black hole, to fix.

Lennon has always done Rene Hidding cold in parliament and in the public so there is no solace for the Liberals in the change-over.

To celebrate Crikey’s 10th birthday, every day for the rest of the year we’ll be dipping into the vault to publish an item from the very same date from one of the past 10 years.