The plunge in Kevin Rudd and Labor’s opinion poll figures, and the corresponding recovery of the Tony Abbott-led coalition has caught most pundits (including this writer) by surprise.

It has been the speed of the Labor fall from grace that has been most surprising — triggered by the insulation batts fiasco, but due also to a number of slow-burn policy failures — rather than a closing of the poll gap itself, which was widely expected on both sides of politics as we move towards an election.

Tony Abbott finds himself in a fortunate position, courtesy of Rudd’s many failings. But then the opposition knew it was only a matter of time before voters wised up to Rudd, though the wait has been frustratingly long.

Malcolm Turnbull fought so hard for his leadership because he also knew that this swing away from the government would happen. Rudd suddenly looks like a rabbit caught in the spotlight, though he is transforming himself from being a leader overconfident to the point of hubris, to the more palatable position of underdog.

However, the reality is more complex than this. What appears to be a potentially election-losing shift in the polls for Labor could easily be mishandled by Abbott and his colleagues. They will need to continue fighting hard to keep Labor on the back foot and any complacency, or premature arrogance, will be punished heavily come election time.

I still believe Labor can and will win the next election, but the remarkable string of policy failures and blunders and unmet promises by Rudd Labor are taking their toll, and the contest is shaping to be far closer than I — or most observers — would have believed at the turn of the new year.

From consultation with former colleagues, I get the sense Labor will still increase its majority, but not by the 10 seats I believed at the end of last year — more like a net two or three.

If Labor’s margin increases only narrowly, the coalition numbers men (they are overwhelmingly men, and to the right in the coalition’s spectrum) will see this as a moral victory justifying their decision to risk all by dumping Turnbull in favour of Abbott, and a victory of sorts for the opposition given the dire predictions of only a month or two ago.

The recent boundary redistribution has rendered five coalition seats notionally Labor, so a net loss of anything less than this number will be regarded as a net gain and a reasonable outcome.

Seats will change hands both ways through a combination of circumstances, including the retirement of previously popular members, Labor ‘oncers’ who skated in on the swing towards Labor in 2007, and other one-off factors peculiar to particular seats — such as the emergence of a strong coalition candidate or a change in an electorate’s persuasion due to the redistribution.

The coalition is likely to lose nine seats:

  • Greenway, NSW — redistribution makes this a Labor seat; sitting member Louise Markus to contest neighbouring Macquarie
  • Macarthur, NSW — Pat Farmer retiring; likely loss to Labor
  • Latrobe, VIC — marginal seat made notionally Labor by redistribution
  • McEwen, VIC – kept in coalition hands by strong candidate in Fran Bailey, who is not recontesting
  • Bowman, Dickson and Ryan, QLD — all likely to move to Labor due to redistribution
  • Herbert, QLD — Peter Lindsay, with very strong local following, retiring
  • Wentworth, NSW — if Malcolm Turnbull decides not to recontest.

Meanwhile, the coalition may win up to six seats:

  • Solomon, NT — strong coalition candidate in Natasha Griggs
  • Leichhardt, QLD — Warren Entsch, former Lib MP with strong local following preselected
  • Bass, Tas — Labor sitting member not recontesting after disastrous term; strong Lib candidate
  • Dawson, QLD — lacklustre Labor member retiring; strong LNP candidate
  • Robertson, NSW — Belinda Neal issues
  • Hasluck, WA.

Also up for grabs are Swan and Stirling in Western Australia, Bennelong and Gilmore in New South Wales and Boothby and Sturt in South Australia. Wins in Corangamite and Deakin (Vic), Wright (Qld) and Macquarie (NSW) would be an upset.

The ‘up for grabs’ and potential surprises for the coalition all hinge on whether Kevin Rudd and his leadership team begin to convert their policy inaction of the last two years into tangible reforms, but time is running out. A coalition win is unlikely, but should not be ruled out.

This article first appeared on Business Spectator.