MPs bowing out of politics at Election 2010: a Crikey List

More of our MPs are retiring than in previous decades, and earlier too. Bernard Keane has compiled a list of those who will be bowing out at the next election.

Australia’s federal politicians appear to be having shorter careers as another large batch of MPs and Senators prepare to leave politics at the coming election.

Thirty one MPs and Senators voluntarily left politics at the last election, more than any previous election and nearly twice the number that left in 2004.

So far this term 20 MPs and Senators have indicated they will not be standing again at the forthcoming election, or have lost preselection, in addition to the half-dozen former Howard government ministers who have already left politics this term. At least one more high-profile Liberal Senator is rumoured to be considering retirement and there remains the question of whether Malcolm Turnbull will continue in Wentworth.

The number of departures tends to wax and wane with the electoral cycle — change-of-government elections yield large crops of retirements, mostly government MPs reading the writing on the wall and bailing out before they move into Opposition. But this meant 1993, when John Hewson was expected to win comfortably, actually produced slightly more departures than the subsequent election when the Keating government was replaced with the Howard government.

Retirees also tend to be MPs rather than Senators, whose resignations don’t attract the opprobrium occasioned by by-elections and don’t fit the House of Representatives electoral cycle in any event.

Since 1990, retiring federal politicians have almost like clockwork averaged careers of 15-17 years before leaving. However, the retirees in 2007 averaged only 14.7 years and the 20 men and women retiring this year have averaged just over 13 years. The decline might be a fluke — James Bidgood and Bob Debus are quitting after just one term — but MPs leaving after three or fewer terms are becoming much more common than in the 1990s, perhaps partly because Labor is now more willing to kill off those who have fallen out of favour (such as Belinda Neal) or fallen victim to factional politicking (such as Kelly Hoare in 2007).

Another reason might be that lobbying is now an established post-politics career option — seven MPs and Senators who have left politics in recent years are on the federal government’s lobbyist register, in addition to long-established lobbyists from previous political generations such as Stephen Loosley and former state politicians. If so, it raises the question of whether the Parliamentary superannuation scheme should continue at its current extraordinarily generous level.

The scheme has traditionally been justified because of the inherently unstable nature of political employment, where politicians are at risk of losing an election or preselection every three years or six for senators. However, if politicians themselves are increasingly regarding office as just one step on a career path from Young Liberal/Labor, adviser, MP or Senator and then lobbyist, consultant or company director, a expense of a generous super scheme might be better directed to lifting the salaries of politicians to try to attract high-quality candidates.

MPs and Senators who have announced retirement at the 2010 election: