As was widely expected, the opinion polls before Saturday’s election overstated the Greens vote: they failed to reach, or even get close to, the 25% mark. Even so, their 21.5% is a striking achievement. The question for them is what do with it.
Clearly the Greens are well and truly established on the Tasmanian scene; this is the seventh successive election where they have exceeded 10%. As far as I can tell, it’s the highest third-party vote recorded in any state outside of Queensland since the establishment of the two-party system — beating such notable marks as the South Australian Liberal Movement of 1975 (18.3%), the Victorian DLP of 1961 (17%) and the Victorian Country Party of 1945 (18.7%), plus, of course, their own Tasmanian record of 2002 (18.1%).
But it is not a breakthrough to major-party status. Nick McKim, or any other Greens leader, will not be able to go to the next election with any credible aim of forming a government. Although tantalisingly close, they again have failed to win a second seat in Denison, and a party that can only win one seat per electorate will always be a minor party.
For the medium term, therefore, the Greens’ ambition must be limited to being a junior partner in government. McKim has already taken the party to the centre, giving it new respectability; now he needs to demonstrate that the Greens can be trusted with a share of power, and that majority government is not necessary for stability.
That’s why an arrangement with the Liberals, hard to imagine in any other state, is a serious possibility. For the Liberals, it’s a win-win proposition: if it works, they get a stable term in government; if it doesn’t, they can go to a fresh election arguing the need to be given a majority. For the same reason, the Greens have a strong incentive to make it work.
It seems that the logic of this situation is starting to dawn on the Labor Party, with the realisation that they cannot assume a Liberal-Greens combination will automatically fall apart. As Sue Neales reported in Tuesday’s Mercury, questions are being raised within the party “about why the government should go meekly into Opposition when it has as much right constitutionally to govern in a minority as do the Liberals.”
After all, if this had been a mainland election, with single-member electorates and Green preferences favoring Labor, the government would probably have been returned with a working majority. Labor only trails the Liberals by about 2%; in South Australia it trails by 4%, and no one questions Mike Rann’s right to continue in office there.
So Labor may try to evade David Bartlett’s commitment to go into Opposition (although if Andrew Wilkie scrapes home in Denison, giving Labor a plurality, even that will not be necessary) and reach its own arrangement with the Greens. Since the Liberals have ruled out actual coalition — there will be no Greens ministers in a Liberal government, at least this time — Labor may even consider trumping their offer by agreeing to take the Greens into cabinet.
Failing such a tempting offer, however, it makes sense for the Greens to try to reach agreement with the Liberals, particularly since that seems to be what their voters prefer. It offers the chance to show the electorate that they can be responsible and, just as importantly, to show Labor that they can’t be taken for granted.
With three big elections coming up on the mainland, that lesson may have wider implications.
If the majority of Tasmanians voted Labor and Green – if over 50% voted that way – then how can we be sure that Tasmanians would prefer a Green Liberal working group, to a Green Labor one? Isn’t Labor traditionally a little bit (even if just a tiny little bit) left of Liberal? And the Greens a bit more left again (even with a moderate leader as in Tassie)? So the majority of Tasmanians voted for slightly left groups. Not slightly right ones.
But honestly: Labor and Liberal are so close, so similar, and both so much committed to the same donors and sponsors. I would not be at all suprised if they quietly have meetings behind closed doors, and then the Liberals rule as a minority goverment, and Labor passes nearly everything they want to do. They will together continue to represent the loggers and the polluters, the big business interests and the developers, and they will work together to gag the Greens. But never admit that such is what they are doing.
Please let me be wrong in this analysis!
Interesting. If the Greens are serious about the climate crisis, there is no reason for them to favour coalition with Labor over coalition with Liberals, because both larger parties are equally insincere and tokenistic on climate change mitigation – witness NSW and Qld Labor support of an expanded coal-based electricity industry, new coal mines etc.
If the Greens could achieve a federal Senate deal with Labor for a real carbon tax to replace the unpassable ETS/CPRS bills, that could tilt the balance Labor’s way in Tasmania. But I doubt there is the possibility of such a federal/state crossover, the carbon lobby in Canberra would lobby furiously against it. So the Tassie Greens might as well go with the liberals. I am sure there are European precedents of ‘Blue/Green’ coalitions, as of ‘Red/Green’ coalitions.
the greens in tasmania , if they have any sense will not consider any formal arrangement or ministries , until after the next federal election, as they would be hopelessly compromised.
consider a formal direction of greens votes (est average 20%) in the 5 tasmanian house of representatives seats.
price of directed prefs – a signed in blood agreement of no pulp mill plus save lake pedder. simple- an advertisers dream.
May be a price – hydro scheme on the gordon-below-franklin to be built to assist in financing the pulling the plug on lake pedder and so tasmanian household electricity bills will not be more than double in 7 years time.
Tony Kevin: A couple of examples of “blue-green” coalitions for you.
The German Greens have been in coalition with conservative parties in several state parliaments.
The Irish Greens are notorious for forming a coalition with Fianna Fail and trading almost all their policies in exchange for cabinet spots. They are likely to suffer a wipeout at the next election.
Thanks for the comments. It’s not conclusive evidence, but in an EMRS poll in the _Examiner_ the week before election 51% of Greens voters said they’d prefer the Greens to support a minority Liberal govt, as against 43% a minority Labor govt.