We’ll call it now — the federal Budget to be handed down in six week’s time will recommend that the troubled indigenous TV broadcaster National Indigenous Television (NITV) be folded into an expanded ABC Indigenous media unit.

No one in government or the ABC is admitting to this radical solution to the problem of what to do with the bastard child that is NITV, but in all of the circumstances it looks the most likely option. Industry insiders — on both sides of the deal — report strong indicators that this is what the government has in mind for NITV’s future.

As Crikey reported shortly after NITV started operations nearly three years ago under a shotgun-wedding model introduced by then federal communications minister Helen Coonan, there was something seriously wrong with the NITV model right from the start:

“NITV is the newest kid on the block in Australian media and, as Coonan told the launch, it was built on the backs of bush blackfellas: “NITV builds on the pioneering work of Indigenous Community Television (ICTV) and I pay tribute to their trailblazing efforts.

“But tribute doesn’t compensate for pinching your broadcast footprint. The four Remote Indigenous Media Organisation (RIMO) members of ICTV, Warlpiri Media at Yuendumu, Pilbara and Kimberley Aboriginal Media in WA, Ngaanyatjarra Media in WA & the NT and Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Media in northern South Australia thought that their continued access to the satellite was guaranteed by the deal between Coonan and the board of NITV. They couldn’t have been more wrong.”

Coonan gave NITV nearly $50 million for its first four years of operation. That money runs out on June 30 this year and, like any half-way competent manager, NITV CEO Pat Turner has been banging on plenty of government doors seeking confirmation of future funding — without any apparent success.

As Turner told Alice Brennan on ABC783 in Alice Springs on Monday this week, she is:

“Extremely concerned that we’ve been left in this untenable situation of uncertainty for our staff. We’ve already lost 12 staff since Christmas … that puts a tremendous strain on our staff and they are worried about their jobs. The Budget comes down on May 11 and six weeks later NITV either closes its doors forever or we have to ramp up again.”

Asked if she had heard any hints, Turner responded:

“No, just been told to wait the outcome of the Budget process, which is totally cruel — very, very cruel what they are doing. You can’t run an organisation with one hand tied behind your back.”

NITV, and remote broadcasting in general, faces another very real problem not of their making. When the federal government switches off analogue TV in 2013 much of remote Australia will effectively be left with no TV signal — denying many people an essential service unless each household installs a dedicated and expensive satellite dish.

The poor relations between NITV and remote broadcasters and content producers have deteriorated over the past three years. This was highlighted in a review of NITV’s operations commissioned by Garrett’s department in late 2009 and that flagged several areas of serious concern, including internal governance, broadcast content, audience reach and an “apparent incongruence in the aspirations of the current board and management of NITV and the expectations of the government and stakeholders”.

Notwithstanding the polite bureaucratese typical of such reports, the review was scathing of the relationships between NITV and community stakeholders, particularly the remote media organisations whose broadcast footprint had been gifted to NITV by Coonan:

“NITV’s relationship with most indigenous media stakeholders is somewhat strained and in need of some concerted effort to rebuild bridges in the relationship and enhance goodwill … a very small proportion [of these] could be regarded as having a close or strong relationship with NITV.”

Dr Ellie Rennie is a research fellow at the Swinburne Institute for Social Research in Melbourne and a long-term observer and commentator on indigenous media issues. She told Crikey she couldn’t see NITV being re-funded in its current form, that indigenous broadcasting is disadvantaged by being located in Garrett’s department of the arts (instead of the better fit with Conroy’s communications) and that the widely held view among remote broadcasters was that there should be a national indigenous broadcaster, but that they feel left out of the current arrangement.

Rennie also says that remote broadcasters believe that the NITV model — as developed by Coonan and managed by NITV since it’s start-up in 2006 — needs to be fixed, particularly in light of digital television and broadband developments.

Rennie told Crikey that there is a lot of industry chatter about the likely future of NITV and that the good money is on an initially unlikely result:

“A real possibility is that NITV will be given to the ABC in one form or another and become an additional channel for the ABC. Last year the government commissioned a review of the public broadcasting sector [the ABC, SBS and NITV] and there was a strong hint in the government’s discussion paper that indicated that NITV could be rolled into either or both the ABC and SBS.

Of that prospect Rennie says: “I think that would be the worst outcome for indigenous broadcasting in
many respects because it would take away ownership and control over broadcasting from the indigenous sector. Though of course it may be very attractive to the government.”

That passage in the government’s ABC SBS Review Discussion Paper notes that:  “It is worth considering whether the indigenous services provided by the national broadcasters and by NITV might be provided in a more effective, efficient and integrated manner, particularly in the transition to a digital environment that makes best use of the available resources.”

Jim Remedio is chair of the Australian Indigenous Communications Association and told Crikey that under the “2020 Strategy – ABC & SBS: Towards a Digital Future” a move under the ABC/SBS wing would be good:  “…providing that it takes into account the needs of remote broadcasters and producers”.

“It is particularly important that these issues be resolved before the introduction of digital broadcasting in 2013,” he said. “But we have very real concerns about issues of representation and control for indigenous broadcasters — we don’t want to lose control over our content and productions and we need to see more jobs and facilities on the ground in remote townships. There also has to be real and effective representation on the board of a restructured NITV — wherever it is located.”

Crikey asked ministers Conroy and Garrett and the ABC managing director Mark Scott for comment on the future of NITV and the likelihood of it being incorporated with the ABC.

Garrett’s spokesperson advised that: “Current funding for the NITV initiative ceases on 30 June 2010. A decision on future funding for NITV will be made in the context of the 2010 federal budget which will be announced on 11 May 2010.”

Conroy’s office advised that the federal government had no plans to incorporate the current operations of NITV into the ABC’s fourth channel.

Head of  corporate communications for the ABC, Sandy Cukoff, advised that the ABC: “… isn’t making any plans to incorporate NITV into its operations” and referred Crikey to the ABC’s February 2010 Submission to the Government’s Digital Dividend Green Paper.

That submission contains the following brief, though tantalising, reference to the ABC’s bid for the digital TV “Channel A”:

“The corporation believes it is well-suited to manage the multiplex, which could include community and indigenous television services and additional ABC channels, such as a public affairs channel and an education channel. Such a multiplex would deliver significant public benefits that are unlikely to be provided by the commercial sector.”

We’ll all be a lot wiser on 11 May.