China 1: Yes, China had its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March. It was for $US7.24 billion as imports soared 66% and exports rose a more sedate 24.3%. China reported trade deficits with countries such as Japan and South Korea, but had a $9.9 billion surplus with the US, which leaves us back at square one in the blame game over the value of the yuan.
China 2: The rebound is not as strong as it looks, of course, because March 2009 was low, thanks to the impact of the global slump. Exports fell 17.1% (a record 25.7% in February 2009) and imports fell 25.1% (24.1% in February of that year. So that left exports up 7% over February 2009 and imports up 41%, which is the best indicator of how strong the economy is.
China 3: And to underline that point, look at import figures for iron ore and oil. Iron ore imports jumped to 59.01 million tonnes, up from 49.38 million in February. The February figure was down because of the Lunar New Year, January’s figure was more than 46 million tonnes, December’s was more than 62 million. Oil imports were the second highest ever in March, up 29% on a year ago at 21.1 million tonnes, or 4.98 million barrels a day. Net imports were 20.8 million tonnes, second only to December’s record 20.9 million tonnes after exports of 2.64 million tonnes. China is also the world’s 4th largest oil producer!
China 4: Car sales in March climbed 55.8% from a year earlier to about 1.74 million units in March. China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers said the March sales figure means first quarter sales reached 4.61 million units, up 71.8% year on year. Passenger car sales rose 63.2% to more than 1.26 million in March, bringing the quarterly sales figure to more than 3.52 million, up 76.3%. China produced more than 1.73 million in March, up 57.7% year on year, taking the first-quarter’s output to 4.55 million units, an increase of 77% from the March quarter of 2009. China’s 2010 car sales figures could go close to 17 million.
China 5: This Thursday the March quarter growth and other figures for the country (and some more March numbers) will be released. AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver sees an annual growth rate of about 12% for the quarter (up from 10.7% in the December quarter) and inflation easing to an annual 2.5% from 2.7%. Watch lending, power useage, house and urban investment and retail sales figures as well.
China 6: Those house prices figures will be fascinating, as will urban investment numbers. There’s a growing feeling that the black holes in China’s property boom have yet to be seen. Regulators have issued a series of directions to banks since January to cut lending, to demand more down payments, not to lend on vacant land, to make all loans of more than 300,000 yuan straight to the recipient and to tighten taxes on property eased in the global slump.
China 7: Sunday we saw the latest warning from the country’s head bank regulator with all Chinese banks ordered to report to their risk exposure to lending projects by the end of June. The regulator will send teams into the banks in the September quarter to check the accuracy of the reports. The regulator will also boost supervision over banks lending in the property sector by checking the borrowers’ credit conditions and banning developers from using land as guarantee. The regulator said banks should boost down-payment requirements and also lending rates if they are not certain of the risks involved in some mortgage loans. The reason for this warning is the activities of local government investment companies, which are rapidly becoming a major headache for China’s government with their unchecked lending for property, with doubtful security. Hence the direction to banks to improve their security, lift interest rates and banning the use of undeveloped land as security for loans.
US Banks: Only one bank went but last week, a small local operation in South Carolina. That was the first in that state since October, 2000. With no failures booked in over Easter, its been a quiet start to April. Forty two banks have gone bust in the US this year.
Grecian pain: A day after a senior executive told Greece to go and get rescued by the EU and the IMF, the ratings agency Fitch has downgraded Greece’s credit rating because of mounting concerns about the government’s ability to control its yawning black hole. Fitch sliced Greece’s rating by two notches to BBB — on Friday and said the outlook on the country remains negative. That’s only a notch or two above junk status.
German exports: They rose 9.6% in February from February 2009 when they plunged by a near record 23% from the same month in 2008. February 2010 exports were up 4.7% from January, when they fell 6.3%. So the recovery is OK, but not great and the fact that the country’s exports haven’t topped 2009 shows just how depressed demand for its goods remains. At least China’s exports are now above 2009 levels. They rose 35.7% in February from the same month in 2009. Germany’s imports were up a very modest 4.2% in February.
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