Over the last week we’ve seen the implied probabilities of an ALP election win reduce dramatically by an average of 11.4%, which is the biggest weekly movement we’ve seen in the markets for some considerable time. While all agencies moved in the same direction, there as quite a spread with Sportsbet leading the pack with a 13.5% change while Betfair moved the least with a 7.5% change.
Looking at the price, probability and weekly change tables, we get:
While the tracking charts come in like this:
Just checked and Sportsbet currently has Labour at $1.67 with the coalition at $2.20
I don’t normally bet on elections. But $1.67 is looking very tempting.
Drat!
Just ran down to put some money in my account and missed the 1.67.
Now $1.62 coalition $2.30