Today brings us a full Galaxy in the News Ltd tabloids and 2/3rds of a Newspoll in the Oz (shakes head). We’ll run through the Newspoll figures tomorrow when the poll is completed.
The Galaxy has the Coalition leading on the primaries 41 (down 1)/ 38 (steady), washing out into a two-party preferred of 52/48 to Labor — a one point increase to the ALP since the last Galaxy 10 days ago. The Greens are up 1 to 14, while the broad “others” are steady on 7. This comes from a sample of 1200 — giving us an MoE that maxes out about the 2.8% mark. As an observation, I can’t remember the last time that Galaxy overestimated the Labor TPP vote with their last poll before an election — if anyone can remember such an occasion, could they drop in a comment?
The spooky similarity between the ALP 2010 versus Coalition 2004 polling patterns continue. The last Newspoll in 2004 produced a 50/50 result. Taking today’s Newspoll at face value for a bit of fun and overlaying the two series we get:
All that needs to happen now is for Nielsen to come out with a 53 or 54 tomorrow (as they did in 2004) and the weirdness shall be complete!
The Greens vote has been the phenomena of the polling campaign — after taking a hit when Gillard first became leader, it quickly jumped back to its earlier highs and has pretty much remained there.
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