A special Essential Report state voting intention poll shows Labor neck-and-neck with the Coalition in Victoria, trailing by 16 points in NSW and by 18 points in Queensland. The polls were compiled over six weeks in September-October.

In Victoria, based on a sample size of 1465, the Brumby Government’s primary vote is on 38%, a swing against it of just over 5% since the 2006 election, and 6 points behind the Coalition (42% Liberals, 2% Nationals). The Greens are on 12%, up 2 points since the last election. That yields a 2PP result of 50:50 before the state headed into the campaign for the 27 November election.

The result for Labor in NSW is dreadful, but probably better than expected: based on a sample of 1953, the Keneally Government is facing a 10% swing against it on its primary vote and is at 29%, compared to the Coalition’s 50% primary vote. The Greens are up 2 points to 11% from the 2007 election. On a 2PP basis, that’s 58-42% to the Coalition. That’s better news than it sounds for Labor, because the 2PP swing of 10.3% would, on the basis of Antony Green’s state pendulum, “only” deliver 16 seats to the Coalition next March (the Greens may also win seats off Labor). This would leave Labor within striking distance at the 2015 election, a situation the Coalition will be anxious to avoid given the amount of heavy lifting Barry O’Farrell will have to do to get NSW back into shape.

The situation is more grim for Anna Bligh’s Government, although it has another eighteen months before an election is due. It is facing a 13.2% primary vote swing (sample size: 1138), and is also on 29%, with the LNP on 50%.

Independents and “others” are also polling strongly in Queensland, on 12% compared to the Greens’ 9%. On a 2PP basis, that means the LNP has a 59-41% lead.