Health research funding faces serious cuts in the forthcoming Budget, according to sources within the science community, but Innovation Minister Kim Carr has defeated an attempt to slash scientific research funding in his portfolio.

Last week, news broke of a looming $400m cut in the budget of the National Health and Medical Research Council. The ABC’s Health Report covered it on Monday, including an interview with the head of the Association of Australian Medical Research Institutes. On Tuesday, an email circulated within the Walter and Eliza Hill Institute of Medical Research about the cuts, saying they were “confirmed”, and predicting protest action. Yesterday, Mental Health and Ageing Minister Mark Butler tweeted “Am reading everyone’s comments about medical research, but can’t speculate on the budget which is still some weeks away.”

The NHMRC, which is responsible for investing in Australian medical and health research, disburses over $700m a year in research funding via its Medical Research Endowment. Over four years, a $400m cut would be about 13% of the research budget.

According to sources within the research sector, the Department of Health and Ageing faces a tough budget because it has previously escaped major cuts under Labor, and medical research is a particular target given its lack of impact on frontline services. Non-research areas of Health have done very well from Labor, with significant increases in hospitals and training funding being key Labor claims against Tony Abbott’s allegedly poor funding record as Health minister. Tough negotiations to cut pathology costs, and the deferral of new PBS listings, have already received media attention. There has also been speculation of changes to MBS items.

However, Kim Carr is said to have successfully fought off attempt to slash research funding in his Innovation portfolio. The Australian Research Council disburses over $700m in research funding a year and the Department of Innovation oversees nearly $1.5b in higher education research grants. The portfolio also includes the CSIRO, where staff have recently undertaken industrial action as part of a pay dispute with the agency. Carr is said to have argued that his portfolio has borne the brunt of recent spending cuts — the Green Car Innovation Fund, a key part of the Rudd Government’s manufacturing policy, has been dramatically slashed, and the notorious cash-for-clunkers scheme ditched.

The rumoured $400m NHMRC cut, however, may be a classic example of pre-Budget softening up, so a significantly smaller cut unveiled on Budget night draws sighs of relief rather than condemnation. But the impact of even a smaller cut will, according to Bob Williamson, Secretary for Science Policy at the Australian Academy of Science, be long-lasting.

“Research can’t be turned on or off like a tap,” he told Crikey. “A cut of $400m would see us lose about 500 people overseas and have impacts for many years to come. And it would send a signal that a country like ours that is well-off and which has been able to avoid the effects of the Global Financial Crisis will not invest in health research.”

Williamson noted that the results from last year’s Excellence in Research for Australia, an evaluation of research undertaken between 2003-08, suggest that fields with consistent funding levels saw much better performance than those with fluctuating levels.

The Government also axed two successful school-age science education programs, Primary Connections and Science by Doing. Williamson believes the axeing of programs like those will have consequences for decades.

“In 10, 20 or 30 years’ time, when the minerals run out, we’ll need a country that is scientifically and technically literate and if we don’t educate our kids in science we simply won’t have one.”