Luna Park an appropriate location. Laughter is the best policy when you hear a politician talking about dole bludgers even when they disguise their meaning with different words as Prime Minister Julia Gillard did last night. It is such a tired and well worn theme for politicians to pretend that there is some huge pool of should-be-workers as they pander to popular prejudice. What is unusual is that a Labor prime minister considers it necessary to lead the charge.

Now it is clear that there has been a steady growth in the proportion of working age Australians receiving the disability support pension, which Gillard is singling out for special attention. The reason for that is not hard to find. Those unfortunate Australians unable to find a job are not stupid. They have worked out that disability pensions pay better than unemployment benefits. When once those with a partial disability would have stayed on an unemployment benefit, in recent years they have followed the money to the other system.

Presumably the new Labor policy is to reverse the trend by sending the partially disabled back to the meaner and less costly unemployment benefits. There once was time when the party of social justice would have been looking to make unemployment benefits more livable on.

The odds on a carbon tax. When reading all the words on compensation for this and that as part of the government’s carbon tax package, it is worth keeping in mind that there is a very good chance that it will all end up being a lot of words about nothing. There is by no means any certainty that there will ever be such a tax.

Unless the government performs some kind of public relations miracle between now and when the House of Representatives actually votes on the proposal, supporting it will be akin to the Independents signing their own political death warrants. I would put the odds of a majority being in favour at less than 50%.

Poker machine regulation. Getting state governments to agree to mandatory restraints on poker machine spending is clearly impossible so that is another subject where Gillard will have to try and get legislation passed by a lower house that she, Independent Andrew Wilkie and the Greens do not have the numbers in. Now I note that there is some kind of opinion poll or other suggesting that a clear majority of Australians are in favour of restrictions but that is irrelevant. The Independents whose support will be needed well know that those who will suffer if small clubs in their electorates go out of business are the ones who are likely to change their vote on this issue. For the majority of constituents it will not rank as a real issue at all.

The cost of living. With petrol prices close to a record high, consumers are now to be hit with rising electricity prices. Under new recommendations released by the NSW Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART), bills for households will increase by between 16.4% and 18.1% from July 1. IPART says average residential customers will pay between $228 and $316 extra a year.

Clearly living costs are about to become the major political issue.