Pity the poor people of Cyprus. Their rescuers have emerged as a bunch of pie-in-the-sky bureaucrats who have just added 5 billion euros to the country’s already huge bailout bill, all of which will have to be found from inside the country.
The upshot will be that Cyprus will need a second or third bailout in the next two years because of the damage the bailout will do to the local economy. The country faces years of recession (or depression), not just two, according to the optimists behind the bailout.
With Portugal’s $US78 billion on shaky grounds and the country looking for more time, and Ireland, better placed, but also looking for more time, the eurozone has again reminded us that it remains stuck in political and financial quicksands which won’t let anyone go easily.
Thanks to the media’s efforts we know the rescue of tiny Cyprus by the International Monetary Fund, European Union and the European Central Bank has been a complete and utter stuff up that will now cost billions more than admitted to last month.
Reporters from the Financial Times managed to get their hands on two key reports linked to the rescue: the “debt sustainability report” and what is being called the “assessment of the actual or potential financing needs of Cyprus”. Both are frightening — they clearly show the real cost of the bailout, which will leave the Cyprus economy depressed for years to come, is 23 billion euros, not the original 17 billion (or 10 billion if you exclude the billions to be taken by big bank deposits in Cyprus’ two big banks).
The extra cost will have to be paid entirely by Cyprus and involve the country having to rollover short and long term domestic and external debt, without any help from the rescuers. And the reports show that after more detailed “debt sustainability analysis” the black hole in the country’s finances is far deeper than first thought. As a result the total cost for Cypriot taxpayers and depositors is now estimated at 13 billion euros, with the agreed to 10 billion to come from the EU and the IMF.
That means the new bill of 23 billion euros is larger than the entire Cyprus economy, meaning the country will almost certainly need one more bailout, and perhaps a third in coming years. The 13 billion to come from Cyprus is over 50% of the country’s GDP, which is simply unsustainable.
The reports were leaked ahead of their consideration tonight by a meeting of eurozone finance ministers, which is expected to sign off on the final details of the Cyprus rescue. That meeting will be held in Dublin. The leaks are unfortunately timed for the EU and IMF (which holds its half-yearly meetings in Washington in two weeks) because it’s clear the US$78 billion bailout of Portugal is starting to come apart at the seams after the country’s Constitutional Court last weekend rejected several austerity measures (which are key parts of the bailout), meaning the government will have to redraft and them and ask for new parliamentary approval.
The Portuguese economy remains stuck in a recession with tax revenues falling short of estimates, privatisations running behind schedule and rising reports of voter opposition to any more cutting. Unemployment continues to rise, placing further pressures on government spending which is supposed to be falling — it isn’t. It’s bailout is due to end in July 2014, but it is clear from media leaks and government statements it won’t meet this deadline because of the weak economy. Portugal is a bigger, richer country than tiny Cyprus and if it is struggling to meet a less onerous bailout, what hope does Cyprus have?
An extension to its bailout is likely to emerge from the meeting of finance ministers tonight, with the meeting agreeing to push the maturities of its bailout loans past July 2014. Portugal’s problems though will remain because the projected funding raising of $29 billion in 2014 and 2015 is 50% more than what the country was borrowing before the crisis. Ireland is also said to be looking for an extension, and media reports say both countries could get their loans extended by up to seven years, if Germany approves.
Crikey is committed to hosting lively discussions. Help us keep the conversation useful, interesting and welcoming. We aim to publish comments quickly in the interest of promoting robust conversation, but we’re a small team and we deploy filters to protect against legal risk. Occasionally your comment may be held up while we review, but we’re working as fast as we can to keep the conversation rolling.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please subscribe to leave a comment.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please login to leave a comment.