Good morning, early birds. New Zealand and Germany had dramatic elections, the big banks are setting ATMs free and polls show trouble for the Yes campaign. It’s the news you need to know, by Max Chalmers.

COALITIONS AND KINGMAKERS

Bill English and Angela Merkel are likely to remain the leaders of New Zealand and Germany after two tumultuous national elections left them both with the task of building a coalition government.

In New Zealand, English held off Labour’s rising star Jacinda Ardern with his National party expected to claim 58 seats, three short of a parliamentary majority. That leaves National in the best position to come to a deal with unpredictable kingmaker Winston Peters of the right-leaning New Zealand First party. It could take time, however, with Ardern not out of the game yet and Peters likely to demand a cabinet position in return for support.

In Germany, Merkel won a fourth term as chancellor despite her party’s vote dropping to it lowest level since 1949. With the Social Democrats also slumping, the biggest surge went to far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD). Winning an estimated 13% of the the vote, AfD will become the first far-right party to enter the German parliament in 50 years, though all other parties have ruled out including the group in a coalition.

Merkel is likely to face a far more difficult task than English and needs at least two partners to cobble a parliamentary majority.

BANKS SET ATMS FREE

Caught out by a first-move from the Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s big four are now all set to ditch the ATM fees charged to customers who don’t bank with them.

The total value of the fees to the banks is around $500 million per year though the transition towards a digital economy means the value of such withdrawals is likely to subside in coming years anyway.

Treasurer Scott Morrison has cautioned the banks not to pass on the fees to customers while Labor and the Greens are claiming victory, pointing to their calls for a Royal Commission as the reason. Public pressure on the banks has undeniably played a role in the move but so too has the government’s Bank Executive Accountability Regime legislation, which proposes new oversight powers for APRA.

MORE HATE FOR LOVE

A new Newspoll in the Australian has backed a recent Essential poll which found support for marriage equality sliding. Support for a Yes vote dropped from 63% to 57% with support for a No vote increasing to 34%. The poll also found 15% of the electorate has already “voted”.

Media research reported in BuzzFeed indicates the No campaign is receiving a disproportionate amount of coverage, but don’t tell that the Dennis Shanahan, who compares the once written-off but now growing support for the No case to the rise of Donald Trump.

All in all the poll is more good news for Tony Abbott, with the results revealing an easing back in public support for Malcolm Turnbull after another week or wrecking, snipping, and undermining.

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WHAT’S ON TODAY

Brisbane: Mention Clive Palmer‘s former media handler Andrew Crook, in relation to alleged kidnapping plot.

Sydney: Mention for state Labor MP Sonia Hornery who allegedly misused electoral enrolment information.

Melbourne: Former public servant Barry John Wells will be sentenced for accepting $1.3 million in kickbacks.

Darwin: A Supreme Court case testing the compulsory acquisition of housing leases in remote NT communities begins.

Western Australia: Queen’s birthday to be celebrated. 

THE COMMENTARIAT

Did Rebel Wilson‘s judge misjudge? — Aaron Patrick (Australian Financial Review $): “There was no direct evidence Women’s Day caused Wilson’s film hiatus, Hickey argues, and an appeal court might question Dixon‘s lost-income arithmetic.”

Same-sex marriage: This is why Tony Abbott‘s ‘no’ stand surprises me — Amanda Vanstone (Sydney Morning Herald): “We are one of the few countries in the Anglosphere not to allow same-sex couples to have their relationships formally recognised as a marriage by the state. Gay marriage was introduced by the Conservative government under David Cameron about four years ago.”

CRIKEY QUICKIE: THE BEST OF FRIDAY

Senator (soon to be Mr) Malcolm Roberts perfectly represents One Nation — Bernard Keane: “With any luck, James Ashby will have his affairs in order if he decides to take the looming vacancy. That will send Roberts back to where he came from, the Awaiting Moderation queue at Andrew Bolt’s blog.”

Why the obsession over the AFL’s stance on marriage equality, when other sports have already said Yes? — Sally Whyte: “The reaction from the AFL’s community, politicians and the dregs on Facebook have been swift and harsh. But the truth is that while the AFL has been a leader on the issue of sexuality, through its Pride games, it is only one of many sporting bodies to back the Yes vote, and has, more than a week after its peers, have already made their stance clear.”

Gay Nationals candidate pilloried for his sexuality at preselection meeting — Michael Sainsbury: “At the preselection meeting at Lismore City Hall, after giving a speech that was well received and after regular questions, Bruem was put on the receiving end of a barrage of leading questions and unsubstantiated statements about a range of issues not worth giving oxygen to here, but crucially, about his partner and relationship. The people asking them knew exactly what they were doing and got the result they wanted.”

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