Holding the NSW state seat of Wagga Wagga in a by-election was always going to be a challenge for Gladys Berejiklian’s Liberal government. Handily for Berejiklian, her federal colleagues decided to help out by knifing a Prime Minister a couple of weeks out, putting on display the profound dysfunctionality of a party that is less broad church than rolling civil war, one in which fire is still being exchanged weeks after its alleged conclusion.
Cue a 28% swing and loss of seat, analysed by William Bowe here.
Fortunately NSW Labor — which suffered a small swing against it as well — looks like it will miss out on snaring Wagga Wagga, which will go to (yet another) independent. Fortunately because NSW Labor doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near power for several terms, and Luke Foley’s cynical and mindless oppositionism doesn’t deserve any reward. The O’Farrell/Baird/Berejiklian government has been the best NSW government since Nick Greiner’s first term and continues to deliver; it’s a pity O’Farrell lost his job over an idiotic memory lapse and Baird couldn’t hack it, leaving a less-than-stellar premier in charge to seek a third term. But NSW has prospered under the Liberals and the alternative of Luke Foley and NSW Labor in charge of the nation’s largest economy is one to send shiver down the spine.
This could be another cost of the leadership debacle, beyond the defeat of a Morrison (or whoever) government at a 2019 federal election: the cruelling of the chances of a far better Liberal government in Macquarie St and the delivery of the NSW economy into the hands of amateurs, union appointees and opportunists who have failed to produce anything remotely resembling comprehensive policy. It may also shore up the chances of Daniel Andrews’ mess of a government in Victoria to cling to power, admittedly in the face of an opposition every bit as grubby — what a wretched alternative for Victorians.
There was some kind of justice in the Wagga Wagga result for the Liberals though: the by-election was the result of the previous MP, one Daryl Maguire, being disgraced in a corruption scandal involving the cesspool that was the former Canterbury Council. The Liberals, to their credit, at least had a go at trying to reform the sewer of shonkery and NIMBYism that is local government in Sydney, but wilted in the face of parochialism and Labor’s cynicism. A key reform thus remains only partly done and awaits a real reformer that will strip local government of its power to control development and thus the primary source of corruption in NSW.
The likely winner in Wagga Wagga, Dr Joe McGirr, is also a pointer to how minor party and independent candidates might profit in regional seats from the federal Liberals’ descent into madness, not merely in regional Liberal-held seats but in National-held seats, given how low-profile and uninspiring Nationals leader Michael McCormack is, and in LNP-held seats in Queensland. How many McGirrs, unknown outside their electorates but with community profile and respect within, stand ready to harvest Labor preferences to overhaul Liberal, National and LNP candidates in regional seats? How do you campaign against them? And how many will follow in the path of Windsor, Katter, McGowan and Sharkie and retain the seat beyond a single election? The Nationals will need some strong product differentiation, and quickly — something that isn’t going to help the sense of disunity within the government. But after the Wagga Wagga result and with Newspoll 56-44, it’s every woman for herself.
In the Weekend Oz our friend Gerald Henderson was praising Berejiklian as an example of a talented woman politician produced by the Liberal Party. If the way Wagga Wagga was handled – selecting a poor candidate, freezing out the Nats, a flood of pork barrel promises, running the campaign – is an example of a talented politician then heaven help us. Until she has won an election as leader it is far too early to praise her. Most significant “reforms” they have attempted have had to be walked back – local govt amalgamations, greyhounds (the exemplar of a backflip), fire insurance levy. You can argue Labor is worse but this mob have hardly been shining examples of great government.
“It may also shore up the chances of Daniel Andrews’ mess of a government in Victoria to cling to power, admittedly in the face of an opposition every bit as grubby — what a wretched alternative for Victorians.”
Finally, Bernard Keane: after being a Twitter drive-by sniper at the Andrews Government for a while and constantly exclaiming that the Andrews government should be kicked out acknowledges that hey, the alternative is Matthew Guy. Well done, only took you a year to realise who you’ve been tacitly endorsing.
The “mess of a government” has been delivering fine. Besides the red shirts scandal (which is hopefully the end of a period in which both sides of politics, state and Federal, felt they had carte blanche to push the envelope on expenses and entitlements), and the recent messiness with the way the Matthew Guy documents were released, what on Earth rates the Andrews government being called a “mess”, Keane? In a 4 year term you get a few things like this, especially in state politics due to the nature of what it’s responsible for; when you manage the schools and hospitals and, yes, police and firies, there’s going to be more room for issues than if you just manage the funding formulas.
The Andrews government is doing a fine job on building public transport, hospitals and other infrastructure that was neglected by the Libs; employment growth in Victoria is very good (and the Andrews government can actually poiint to things it has done to support this, unlike Turnbull). Andrews stood up for renewable energy and maintaining a renewable energy target. Andrews stood up for marriage equality, and for fighting family violence.
And you say it is a “wretched choice” between Andrews and Guy? How ignorant!
If you’re going to make these forceful interjections into Vic state politics, then either demonstrate you actually have more of a knowledge of Victoria than Herald Sun headlines or stick to Canberra (where the Coalition is recovering, someone wrote here not long ago!) and NSW.
I was about to say the same thing. The Andrews government isn’t perfect and there have been mistakes like every government makes. But I reckon it’s the best government we’ve had in the 30 odd years I’ve lived here.
Agreed. Bernard is getting pretty tiresome with his broad assertions without any examples or evidence. What have the NSW Libs done to warrant such praise (I can only think of backflips and stadium building)? What has been such a ‘mess’ of the Andrews Govt?
Bernard, if you don’t have time to articulate these points perhaps some links to example elsewhere on the internet might help your argument.
Excellent response to Bernard Kearne comments on Victoria. We are fortunate to have a government in Victoria that is actually delivering on infrastructure, renewables and other matters important to Victorians . Yes there have been some mistakes, but on balance this is a can do government with vision and competence which is more than can be said for the previous government and the current opposition. I like most of Bernard Keane’s analysis in Crikey but this one smacks too much of a Sydney view of Melbourne – just come here and smell the roses, Bernard.
Well said, Arky. I don’t live in Victoria, but my daughter and family do. They would echo your comments and the above replies.
Bernard…some of us are sick to death of your ‘kill Bill and the ALP’ obsession. Now you are starting on Daniel Andrews and Luke Foley for no reason that anyone with half a brain can understand.
Why don’t you move to Limited News? The drongo commentators there will love this tripe!!
Oh, I understand why he has it in for Luke Foley. When Baird floated the idea of ending greyhound racing in response to the report into all the dogs killed and mistreated, and Foley shamefully allied with the industry. Keane is huge into rescue greyhounds (so he can’t be all bad).
Disappointing ignorance on display from Bernard Keane about Victorian state politics. The Andrews Labor government has stuck to its promises and delivered on them, Keane should at least have given us some basic facts. Like the six new solar and wind farms were announced just yesterday to take the state where the federal LNP government refuses to go – an energy policy! Commsec now has Victoria overtaking NSW as the best performing economy in the country. Expected better from Crikey than baseless assertions.
NSW has prospered despite the Liberals.
A cronyish mob of real estate tycoons selling off the silverware.
Sydney’s light rail scandal still unfolding. City-centric, but understandably as they continue to fail most planning challenges.
Land clearing laws renew the assault on the environment that passes for policy.
The opposition are nobodies, but I see no real difference in competence, just the usual Liberal brass necks.
I don’t think federal matters had as much to do with Wagga as some say. Maguire was a crook, Gladys swamped the local candidate on the billboards apparently, big city versus regional centre as usual, a credible and public local candidate who’s not a ‘mate’.
Bernard, I find your admiration for the NSW government hard to stomach. I was prepared to cut them some slack given their ambitions on urban infrastructure; remembering how Carr and successors failed in this area. Unfortunately Gladys, Casino Mike etc have proved themselves incapable of choosing or managing big ticket infrastructure, culminating in the light rail debacle, the make it up as we go along Westconnex and of course the stadiums fiasco, a contributor to the Wagga Wagga defeat.
While billions can be found for pet projects most state government responsibilities are being bled dry, whether TAFE, the environment, hospitals, the arts etc etc. On top of which Gladys’ bunch of god-botherers have pretty much closed Sydney down with their lock out laws. I weep for my city.
I don’t think much of Foley either but Gladys has handed him his election slogan and a good chance next March. Don’t blame the Feds for that.
Hear! Hear! and your comment on Foley, I don’t have any need to know, I don’t want to know, what brand of dog they follow as it has no relevance to Government of a Democracy. The LP have sold off all NSW assets, what the hell are we left with, a privatised state, run by LP cronies, I despair.
Totally agree. What is BK’s measure of success? Is it the current infrastructure overkill, all poorly and hastily conceived under GB’s watch while she was transport minister?
The heavy price paid has been handing over Sydney’s urban planning to developers; and selling its soul in the process.
The NSW govt’s relationship with developers is what’s really on the nose in NSW, and that’s what the pub talk’s about. That the Wagga by-election resulted from a developer corruption scandal involving Maguire surely has more relevance to the Wagga outcome than the recent Liberal melee in Canberra
Every woman for herself , indeed. Pity they are so short of good women,