The world’s response to COVID-19 has largely reflected a complete misunderstanding, and at times a gross misrepresentation, of risk. Let me ask you a question. Without checking, what percentage of the world’s population has died from COVID?
Ten percent? Five percent? One percent?
The answer is 0.04%. Or let me put it another way: 99.96% of people have not died from COVID-19. Even in the world’s worst affected countries, like the US or Brazil, less than 0.20% of the population have been lost to COVID. (India, currently in the midst of a widespread outbreak, is tracking at a 0.014% fatality rate since the start of the pandemic).
And of the 0.04% of the earth’s inhabitants who have died, the median age of death in countries is above that nation’s life expectancy. According to the US Centers for Disease Control, 80% of those hospitalised in the US are clinically obese. COVID-19 is a very targeted killer.
That is not to understate the tragedy of each of those 3,000,000 deaths, but to put the real risk into perspective. (It’s tragic when someone falls off a ladder and dies, but despite it killing 200 people every year in Australia, we keep using ladders because that risk across the entire population is so small.)
Fear of COVID has become like fear of flying in a commercial aircraft, which is far safer than driving to the airport. Or we compare COVID to the last great pandemic, the Spanish Flu, which killed 3.33% of people on earth (with many of those victims young). COVID-19 is not done yet, but it’s likely that the Spanish Flu pandemic was around 50 times (yes 50) more deadly than COVID-19. The Black Death, meanwhile, is estimated to have killed more than half of Europe’s population.
Despite COVID-19 being far less lethal than the Spanish Flu, the pandemic has led to unprecedented government interventions. Education for hundreds of millions of children has been significantly impacted (with disadvantaged children, who often can’t access basic technology or private tutoring, far more affected). Millions of businesses have been shuttered. More than half of people surveyed by leading youth mental health organisation Orygen believe the pandemic has worsened their mental health. The impact has been most significantly felt by the poor, the fragile and the young. The rich are able to escape to their holiday homes or super yachts while watching their share portfolios go up.
Australians, more acutely than most, have been happy to make that trade. Eliminate COVID-19 and remove the risk that around 0.15% of people will not survive, while at the same time worsening the lives of millions of others.
Shutting borders has meant that millions of grandchildren are not able to see their grandparents, for some ever again. Children have missed their parents’ funerals. Brothers and sisters have missed weddings. Mothers have been separated from their babies. A nation of migrants has happily coalesced to draconian border restrictions for a risk of death that is almost non-existent for most.
Then there’s the impact on countries who depend on our tourism: the people of Fiji and Bali have been decimated by border closures. As a nation we have decided it’s more important to eliminate a 0.15% chance of death than to ensure a family can afford food elsewhere. Australians have been conditioned by state premiers to ignore the well-being of our interstate neighbours, let alone those who live outside our national borders.
Those under 60 are far more likely to die of accidental poisoning, suicide or road accidents than from COVID-19. Eleven thousand Australians lost their lives to those causes in 2020.
The version pushed by governments (which have, conveniently, benefitted politically from the pandemic), repeated by struggling media organisations and believed by millions, is that living normally during a pandemic is an utterly selfish act.
But is it really?
Border closures and lockdowns are massively harmful to certain groups — the poor, migrants, the young and people overseas. The beneficiaries of these sacrifices are (often) the old and the wealthy — the latter of whom minimise their already tiny chance of death.
We have taken the advice of doctors throughout the pandemic. Doctors train for a decade to save specific lives. We have largely ignored the views of economists, who are focussed on externalities faced by society as a whole. In doing so we have greatly exaggerated the risks to the few and discounted the very real harm to the many.
Adam Schwab is a director of Private Media, the publisher of Crikey, and the co-founder of Luxury Escapes, a Melbourne-based travel company. He is also the author of Pigs at the Trough: Lessons from Australia’s Decade of Corporate Greed.
As usual, Adam makes no mention of Long-Covid which affects 30% of all people who are treated in hospital….
And his % death toll is based on total population not infected cases….
I think everyone knows which place they prefer to live and it isn’t the USA, Brazil or India….
Could Crikey label these types of reports as “opinion” – this is an old, tired perspective, which selectively uses stats to justify a viewpoint. In these instances, at least try to have some balance by referencing other viewpoints.
Open discussion is fine – but there are so many errors of omission in this article it is misleading.
It is a concern that Adam Schwab is on your board and may influence editorial policy.
Certainly shouldn’t be in under the “Health” section.
… and that they rarely disclose it
… and that he is given free reign to rant on the pandemic despite the absence of any relevant qualification
… and, as far as I can tell, has had no previous journalistic experience until his run on the outlet he just happens to be part of running.
While Adam is listing the negative impacts on lock-down to young and middle-aged people, he might consider the negative impacts of a raging pandemic on our vital health workers. Firstly the real, increased risk to them from the massive amounts of exposure they receive; second the physical and emotional impacts of their workload and stress, including PTSD, in an overrun health system; thirdly, the reduction in availability and quality of care in these overrun health systems to those at low risk of Covid, but find themselves in an emergency or other health crisis.
What’s the solution for that Adam – shut the Covid-ridden oldies up in a bunker and let them die? Even if you decide that’s an acceptable sacrifice, I think you’ll find that the vast majority of our health workers are morally and unethically incapable of doing that – they will fight to try and save everyone, regardless of the cost to themselves. And then, they won’t be available to take your luxury escapes.
What rubbbish. Instead of protecting older people in care homes they infected them by sending those with Covid back to N. Homes. Seems like you don’t know that thousands die every year ( Old & infirm with multiple health problems) during a “Bad” Flue season – – and always have.
Still don’t let the facts deter you – believe the MSM who just want to frighten you.
James, you are way off with the pixies on this subject. Your ‘facts’ are largely misunderstood phrases from scientific reports that were misinterpreted by a chiropractor.
That’s not fair on Chropractors but otherwise correct!
You and Dog’s Breakfast don’t need a chiropractor. You both need a licensed shrink. Even an unlicensed one might help.
Whatever you Whackjob.
Not so. It is you who are off with the pixies. See the previous posts regarding the vaccinated WA security guard who tested positive with covid. So much for your mantra ” the vaccine will prevent getting covid”. Off with the pixies indeed.
Stating that the global overall death rate is low without looking at any other figures is cherry picking to the extreme. The world has almost shut down in order to limit the spread of covid infections, which leads to less infections, which leads to less deaths. If the world opens up without precautions then the infection rate will increase which leads to more deaths. This should not be hard to understand.
Still, a director gets his weekly advertorial / letter to the editor published and there will no doubt be the regular avalanche of covid deniers and anti-vaxxers joining in so crikey hits its click rate kpi. Keep it up and see you back here next week – same time, same place, same material. Try the veal.
In India I’m watching a health system that has broken down, doctors in tears, nurses abused… people without Covid dying because they can’t get a bed. They’re burning corpses on the sides of the road.. for pity’s sake… This is what happens when the virus is left to get out of control.
Do you want to see that happen here?
If you want us to open up again then lobby the federal government to put in place a fit-for-purpose quarantine system with workers who aren’t allowed to spread the virus into the community when they knock off work or move onto their second or third job.
To the Media bad sensational News sells – Good news does not. Facts re India — –
*India’s Population 1.3 Billion people ( Most poor)
*India has reported 17.6 million “Cases” from Covid
with a total of around 196,000 deaths. Cases do NOT mean that people are sick -it means they have tested positive with Covid — and 99.9 % survive.
*Deaths – India has reported 196K deaths from Covid but some could have been as a result of “other” health problems. Deaths with Covid NOT from Covid.
Using figures above death rate in India = .00001%
400,000 deaths to date James, and everyone believes that to be radically understated. Death brought forward by Covid is technically death from Covid. Technically, no-one died from Covid, they died from the complications of Covid, like not being able to take in oxygen.
BS ! You talk crap when ever Covid is the subject. You’ve obviously read nothing that wasn’t supplied by MSM.
Please supply supporting infor re 400k deaths. I’ve seen reports highest at 200K. Point is that even if it was 400K the death rate in the population (from Covid would only be double .00001%
Figures from India are unreliable.
Covid19 tests are hard to come by and people are dying without a test at all.
James all those extra bodies- people who died from Covid 19- & you still deny the pandemic.
People in India are not making this up. Over half a million Americans dead too- many health workers & young people have died from covid. And Brazil, appalling death rate there. Yet somehow you fail to see it. Doctors, nurses & morticians are not lying.