(Image: AAP/Joel Carrett)

Sometimes good people do bad things. Enter the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation, which almost single-handedly (and probably unintentionally) derailed Australia’s vaccination campaign when it recommended against the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine for people under 50.

The group, led by Professor Christopher Blyth from the University of Western Australia and the affable Victorian deputy chief medical officer, Allen Cheng, no doubt thought the decision would save lives. The problem is the recommendation, coupled with unfortunately misleading reports regarding AZ’s effectiveness (real-life results from the UK show almost identical efficacy to the lauded Pfizer vaccine), has led to upwards of a third of Australians being unwilling to take a vaccine.

With the benefit of hindsight, the advisory group appears to have got it wrong. Not with regards to the rate of clotting (which at 1:100,000 is more common than what was predicted) but rather the fatality rate. So far, after more than 1.8 million doses, 24 Australians have reportedly suffered clots but only one person has died. The death occurred before physicians were fully aware of the issue and well before treatments had been refined (plus the victim had severe chronic underlying health conditions, including diabetes). Given the understanding and treatments it is likely that very few others, if any, will die as a result of blood clots resulting from the vaccine.

The decision to preference against AZ is therefore likely to have saved very few (and possibly zero) lives. This may not have been a problem had the announcement not led to a massive wave of vaccine hesitancy.

It’s almost a mathematical certainty that even with quarantine workers vaccinated there will be breaches of hotel quarantine in the next six months. For example, a recent case involved a returned traveller who came back healthy catching COVID while in quarantine in South Australia before returning to Melbourne.

The possibility of widespread infections during winter in a largely unvaccinated population is likely to lead to some deaths (COVID kills about one in every 200-300 people who catch it).

Given most COVID deaths involve older people (who would otherwise have taken the AZ vaccine), the calculus of the advisory group’s decision was almost certainly wrong. And it was wrong because the group not only significantly overstated the risk of clotting deaths, but badly underestimated the psychological impact of the decision with regards to vaccine hesitancy.

Then there are externalities that a medical board would almost certainly not consider.

Take for example Australia’s refugee intake (which pre-COVID was about 15,000 annually). As people delay taking the vaccine, that slows border openings and prevents refugees from coming. Refugees come predominantly from countries like Iraq, Congo (DRC), Myanmar, Syria and Afghanistan, meaning many are literally fleeing war zones. It’s impossible to know how many refugees who can’t come to Australia will die as a result of our closed borders, but it’s almost certain to be a higher number than incremental AZ clotting deaths.

The data coming out of Europe regarding AZ’s efficacy (even against the Indian strain) is strong. Plus not a single person has died since the group’s decision, which gives it reason to update its recommendation.

Can the advisory group put the genie back in the bottle? Possibly. Yesterday it released a statement clarifying its position. But it needs to happen quickly and forcefully, otherwise a decision intended to save lives could achieve the opposite.

Have you opted against getting the AZ vaccine? Let us know by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication in Crikey’s Your Say section.

Adam Schwab is a commentator, business director, and the co-founder of LuxuryEscapes.com. He is also the author of Pigs at the Trough: Lessons from Australia’s Decade of Corporate Greed.