Dan Tehan’s French sojourn has not been fruitful. In Paris for an OECD ministerial meeting, the trade minister was snubbed by his French counterpart and some senior business leaders as the fallout from Australia’s hasty decision to cancel its submarine contract with Naval Group continues.
And while France’s ambassador, recalled in the aftermath of the AUKUS pivot, will now return to Canberra, Tehan’s visit shows how far relations with France, and Europe in general, have soured.
From subs to snubs
Last week France’s Trade Minister Franck Riester formally rejected Tehan’s request for a meeting.
“We can’t go on as if it was business as usual,” he said.
Despite efforts from ambassador Gillian Bird to secure a meeting so Tehan could explain why Australia’s shift was “in the national interest”, he was snubbed.
And the snubbing continued. The next round of negotiations with the European Commission over a planned free trade agreement, a key reason for Tehan’s visit, was also delayed, possibly by a month, possibly longer. While the commission didn’t explicitly give a reason for the delay, the subtext was clear.
Anger at Australia has also spilled into the business community. MEDEF, a key French corporate lobby group which met Prime Minister Scott Morrison in June, also cancelled a meeting with Tehan.
Meanwhile US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held high-level meetings, including with French President Emmanuel Macron. Although the submarine contract was torn up to facilitate a security pact with the United States and Great Britain, Australia bears the brunt of France’s anger.
As Tehan was receiving the silent treatment, Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said ambassador Jean-Pierre Thebault would return to Canberra to “help redefine the terms” of the bilateral relationship.
That Thebault’s return represents a minor cooling in tensions is a sign of just how much the relationship has deteriorated in just a few weeks. In August, Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton held inaugural 2+2 dialogues with their French counterparts, where they spoke of “shared values” and a commitment to deepening defence industry cooperation.
Times have really changed.
Biden administration backs away
It’s also becoming clear that, from the American perspective, Australia cancelling the French submarine contract and announcing AUKUS was a deep diplomatic bungle.
According to Axios, Australia and the UK first approached the Biden administration about AUKUS in February, promising to cancel the French submarine contract. The administration wanted assurances cancelling the contract with the French was a done deal, and in June Australia reportedly told the Americans there had been direct conversations between Macron and Morrison to that effect.
That doesn’t cohere entirely with the account from Morrison. Last month he said he’d had a lengthy discussion with Macron in June, where he described the “very real issues” with conventional submarine capacity. He later confirmed he’d told Macron the contract would be torn up the night before the announcement, although it’s still unclear whether the pair actually spoke.
The Biden administration, meanwhile, is quickly backing away from Australia’s abrupt cancellation of the contract. Speaking on French TV yesterday, US special envoy for climate John Kerry said Biden “literally had not been aware of what had transpired” between Australia and France ahead of the AUKUS announcement.
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