Annastacia Palaszczuk and Scott Morrison (Images: AAP)

At the federal election, Scott Morrison will face at least four opposition leaders — and only one sits in Canberra.

Although Anthony Albanese will lead Labor’s national fight, it is more likely the premiers of Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia will carry a bigger sway with voters.

And that could make the prime minister’s plan to stay in power a touch tricky.

Take Queensland, where the working relationship between Annastacia Palaszczuk and Morrison is testy, where the state’s vaccination levels are lower than most other states, and where the borders remain shut. None of those issues were in play at the last election, but this time they will be crucial.

Will Queensland even open its borders when the rest of the nation does? Or would it be a clever political tactic for the Palaszczuk Labor government to keep them shut, stopping Morrison from calling a pre-Christmas election? Even how the Australian Electoral Commission deals with a pandemic poll means this election will be different.

Morrison may even be forced into hotel quarantine in Brisbane for the 14 required days before being allowed to roam the state. Campaigning by Zoom in Queensland? And WA too?

COVID-19 will also play a big role in Victoria. Will Premier Dan Andrews give Morrison kudos for the extra vaccines sent his way recently or lambast him for being tardy in ordering doses last year? And are voters directing their blame for civil unrest, the fact that many are still waiting to get a vaccine, and continued restrictions on Andrews and Labor or the federal Liberals?

Who knows how the changing of the guard in the New South Wales premier’s office will play out federally? While Dominic Perrottet is closer than his predecessor to Morrison in terms of faith (and gender), that will mean nothing during an election campaign.

More prominent — particularly if the poll is held this year — is how families fare as NSW opens up again after 106 days. What will that mean for schools? Public transport? Transmission? The impact on our hospitals will certainly be front and centre of the campaign, whether it’s held soon, or next year.

That will create a problem for Morrison, and almost definitely secure a boost for the states after Victoria and NSW joined forces to demand more funding. And what the states ask for — in this climate and wielding this much electoral power — they might just get.

This pandemic has showed us the power of the states. In many respects, it’s shown the premiers are more powerful than the prime minister. Combined, they could be overpowering. And that gives them enormous weight to influence the campaign.

Debt used to be a dirty word. Now it’s not. And issues that might have driven people to change votes will have muted influence this time. Of course, employment and climate change will remain vital, but voters’ safety, the mental health of the nation (particularly its children), how our schools and universities bounce back, and the ongoing transmission numbers will trump most traditional issues.

How will Morrison and the Liberals navigate that, with limited movement? How do they navigate the states’ responses to COVID? In Queensland, where except in the south-east corner the Liberals dominated in 2019, what impact will that have? Will voters credit state Labor with keeping COVID south of the border? Or will the votes come from the queue of coastal towns desperate to have southern tourists visit again?

Time will tell. But the premiers — Labor and Liberal — wouldn’t be doing their job unless they were writing a note to Santa and sending a copy to Morrison. At this point, we shouldn’t rule out that it might be delivered even before Christmas.