Nationals David Littleproud, Barnaby Joyce and Bridget McKenzie (Image: AAP/Mick Tsikas)

At last, Scott Morrison got his deal. Three days before the prime minister is set to leave for Glasgow, after the fourth meeting of the Nationals party room in a week, his deputy Barnaby Joyce confirmed the junior Coalition partner would support “a process going forward that would go towards the 2050 emissions target” of net zero.

Even Joyce’s confirmation of the Coalition’s shift was cautious and grudging, the coda to a week of very public hand-wringing over the deal, which in turn came after months of senior Nats declaring they would never in hell support net zero. 

Joyce refused to make his own position on net zero clear, but reportedly spoke against it at the Nationals party room meeting yesterday. When Morrison goes to Glasgow this week, armed with confirmation that Australia will do the bare minimum to save face on climate in front of its allies, he’ll leave behind an acting prime minister that doesn’t support the government’s intent on climate. 

An inevitable deal

That the government had to move toward net zero was always inevitable. It became so when Joe Biden re-entered the Paris accord within hours of his inauguration in January. And it became more so when Morrison dropped a reference to reaching net zero “preferably” by 2050 into his National Press Club address at the start of the year.

Since then, the lurch toward the target has been carefully stage-managed. Every incremental shift in Morrison’s language over the past few months has been reported as a sign that the climate wars are coming to an end.

Similarly, the Nationals’ very performative angst over net zero has a clear message. Despite the party’s capture by fossil-fuel interests, it also holds key electorates in central and north Queensland where the ties to coal are so deep that words like net zero are seen as an existential threat. Just ask Bill Shorten.

By appearing to drag their feet, with Joyce slowly shifting his tone since becoming leader, and people like Matt Canavan posting pictures of the steaks you’ll apparently no longer be allowed to eat, the Nationals are showing those voters they’ve got their back, while slowly acquiescing to the inevitable. For all their public reservations about net zero, and thinly veiled threats from people like George Christensen to cross the floor, the Nationals were never seriously going to really blow up the Coalition, the one thing that gives this party representing a minority of Australians such disproportionate power.

Australia kept in the dark

Beneath the headline of a “deal,” so much of the fine print about what was actually agreed to remains hidden. This morning, Liberal Senator Zed Seselja told Senate Estimates Energy Minister Angus Taylor would use a public interest immunity claim to block an order to produce the government’s modelling on net zero. 

Then there are the concessions the government made to get the Nationals on side. It’s long been reported the junior Coalition partner were expecting billions in handouts to fund pet projects in the regions as the cost of their agreement. Yesterday, Joyce refused to name the price of any deal.

“I don’t have to, mate,” he told media.

But Joyce has already “booked in” an extension of inland rail to the port of Gladstone, a pet project that will open up a surge in coal exports. Past thought bubbles include exemptions for farmers and methane emissions. In the last few weeks, Resources Minister Keith Pitt called for a $250 billion government loan facility for the mining sector as his price. Any deal could pave the way for Pitt to return to cabinet. Asked repeatedly in Estimates this morning about the price of the deal with the Nationals, Seselja dug in.

“I don’t accept the premise of your question,” he said.

On top of all that, there’s the question of what the deal actually means. Joyce talks about a goal, while Morrison is framing it as a Nationally Determined Contribution, a promise made to the international community. 

Left behind by the world

It’s a sign of how broken our climate debate is in Australia that by the time the Morrison government had finally reached an uneasy peace on net zero, many allies had moved on to more ambitious targets. While the Coalition nearly tore itself apart over 2050, 2030 is what really matters. 

Joyce confirmed last week that the 2030 targets wouldn’t improve beyond a 26-28% reduction of 2005 emissions levels. The United Kingdom, United States, European Union and Canada have all adopted greater medium-term targets. The Brits have locked in a 78% of 1990 levels by 2035. Biden wants a target of 50-52% of 2005 levels by 2030.

The Morrison government will likely claim Australia is meeting and beating the current 2030 targets without officially embracing a further commitment. That’s thanks in part to the states, which have all embraced greater climate ambition. Yesterday, NSW Treasurer Matt Kean told ABC’s Insiders the government could reach a medium-term commitment of 35% just by averaging commitments made by the states. 

State governments have quietly embraced reality. But acting with more urgency is still politically impossible in Canberra.