Omicron threatens to create a mutation of election strategies

There’s a lot we don’t really know about the Omicron variant, which originated in southern Africa and has already reached Sydney. But that hasn’t stopped a surge in anxiety and growing fear its great transmissibility could cool off Australia’s brief flirtation with a normal summer.

Over the weekend states tightened border restrictions, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison will convene a meeting of national cabinet later today or tomorrow, ahead of schedule. But he’s taken great pains to point out there’s nothing to fear in that.

“I wouldn’t describe it as an emergency meeting,” Morrison told Nine. “I’d call it a normal meeting we would convene in these circumstances to bring everybody up to speed with the same information.”

It could be weeks before we learn how much of a threat Omicron is, especially given Australia’s high vaccination rates. But from a political perspective, a new variant could lead to more jostling between the states, with a rerun of many of the COVID debates of winter 2021.

And for Morrison, desperate to avoid Parliament and swing into campaign mode, it could be both a blessing and a curse.

States double down

The weekend brought a flurry of activity. Non-residents from nine countries in southern Africa have been barred from Australia (despite Omicron already being detected in Europe and, as of yesterday, Sydney).

Meanwhile New South Wales and Victoria, which have scrapped hotel quarantine, have introduced more restrictions on international arrivals, introducing a 72-hour isolation period. But already there’s potential for the two states to deviate.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet is adamant he will not reintroduce hotel quarantine, impose restrictions or deviate from the COVID-19 roadmap. Victorian chief health officer Professor Brett Sutton conceded that while Omicron was probably impossible to keep out, the state wasn’t back at square one.

But Victoria has always been more risk-averse in its COVID response than NSW, and by last night there were reports of health officials considering an introduction of 14 days’ quarantine for all overseas arrivals, and a return of mandatory masking. And Health Minister Martin Foley insisted Omicron justified the urgent need for the government’s contentious pandemic laws to pass Parliament. 

Over in Western Australia, Premier Mark McGowan promised to keep borders to the rest of the country shut for even longer (at least to those who aren’t professional cricketers) if Omicron proved worrying.

“Being cautious works. Being adventurous doesn’t,” he said. 

The politics of it

Politically, Omicron has emerged at a challenging time. Both major parties are sharpening their election pitches ahead of a poll due before May next year. The government desperately needs Australians to have a normal summer. Labor hopes to finally release some more policies in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

How Omicron affects election fortunes is a question of “ifs”. If it fizzles, all is good for the government — even if that fizzling comes at the expense of Australians stranded overseas. Even a more serious rise in cases could be an opportunity for Morrison to regain the pandemic halo that has boosted the fortunes of political leaders around the world and has deserted him in recent months. But tightened interstate borders could also make it harder for him to campaign, especially in WA where the Liberals stand to lose seats. 

If Morrison mishandles things, it could open up another line of attack for Labor, furnishing its narrative of a Coalition government that made devastating missteps throughout the pandemic. Over the weekend, Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese criticised Morrison for being slow to place restrictions on African countries. He then reiterated old calls for purpose-built quarantine facilities, a line he had abandoned when the end of hotel quarantine made them into white elephants. 

But leaning too hard into COVID caution could bring problems for Labor. Morrison’s entire election schtick is to claim credit for freedom. Tainting Labor as the party of restrictions could be a big boost, particularly in lockdown-fatigued NSW, the state most crucial to its election chances. 

A lot remains uncertain about the Omicron variant. But as the picture becomes clearer, it could lead to some hasty reframing of both parties’ election strategies.