Andrew Forrest and Mike Cannon-Brookes (Images: AAP)

Australia’s green energy transition will not just magically happen — it needs to be made to happen. The key is having the various efforts required — financial capital, engineering, government support and environmental regulation — all working in concert.

Most modern economics is about how to allocate resources, either through the invisible hand of the market or the visible hand of the firm. And, of course, how government can best assist — either by internalising externalities or by getting out of the way.

But there is a more recent strand of economics that focuses on how economic activity is coordinated.

One way of thinking about our green energy problem is that we need somebody to act as what Robert Akerlof and I call a “mover and shaker”. That somebody needs to be central in the economic network.

The idea is simple enough.

Let’s call that central actor David. Suppose that you and I don’t know each other, but we both know David. And we both know that we’re connected to David because, well, everybody knows David.

This means that if David thinks that, say, green hydrogen is a good idea that will work then I know that because I’m connected to David. You also know that because you’re connected to David. And here’s the rub: I know that you know it and you know that I know it. In the language of game theory, it becomes common knowledge that green hydrogen is a good idea because of David’s involvement and connectedness. Nobody other than a central player can do the trick.

And the “trick” in this instance is coordinating the disparate people and activities that an epoch-making event like a green energy transition requires.

Steve Jobs was the mover and shaker of the personal computer revolution. Bill Gates was the mover and shaker of the software revolution. Elon Musk has done it for electric cars. And William Zeckendorf was the mover and shaker of real estate in the United States in the 1950s and ’60s (responsible for, among other things, bringing the United Nations to New York).

Who will be Australia’s green energy mover and shaker? Two leading candidates are Andrew Forrest and Mike Cannon-Brookes. Both are wealthy. Both are passionate about green energy. Both are household names in Australia. Both are politically connected. Both have a “look”. Will it be one of them?

One of the downsides of economics is that it can be a bit technical. But an upside of all the maths is that it affords precision. In thinking about movers and shakers, the formal framework for thinking about it shows that talent matters, but is not dispositive.

Suppose potential movers and shakers differ on three dimensions of ability: managerial skill, talent at communicating with investors, and how much capital they have. It turns out that the successful mover and shaker need not be the best of any of these, but they cannot be too weak on any.

In other words, the ability to move and shake is part skill and part luck.

There is good reason to believe that both Forrest and Cannon-Brookes are sufficiently talented on all three of these dimensions of ability, and are central enough to successfully coordinate the disparate constituencies that need to be brought together.

But there is one other crucial ingredient: the underlying technology. While the triumph of VHS over Betamax is a cautionary tale in a world where coordination is king, the best technology need not win out. But as with movers and shakers, technology cannot be too bad and still win out.

Here Forrest and Cannon-Brookes differ — sort of. Forrest is betting heavily on hydrogen. Cannon-Brookes has put down chips on battery technology and clean energy retailing. Interestingly, they are both early backers of Sun Cable, an ambitious project aiming to export green energy from the Australian outback to Singapore. Maybe that’s revealing.

In any case, it’s not easy to be a Jobs or Gates, a Musk or Zeckendorf. But it is the one essential ingredient in technological revolutions that requires a magical combination of skill and luck. Are Twiggy and Mike our green energy movers and shakers?

I hope so.