What and who will shape the United States next year?

A lot happens in 365 days.

One year ago Donald Trump was president and plotting to keep it that way. The Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines had just commenced their rollout. Hundreds of thousands of Americans had been killed by the virus. The worst surge was in full swing. Schools were closed. Restaurants were shuttered. Christmas plans were cancelled. Unemployment stood at 6.7%. Millions of people were on the brink. Everyone hoped that 2021 would bring relief.

In many respects, it did. In just 50 days the new Biden administration enacted a $1.9 trillion rescue plan to provide emergency support and economic stimulus. This was the fastest major legislation at the outset of a presidency since FDR entered the Oval Office.

It kickstarted the resuscitation of America’s economy that has sent unemployment plunging to 4.2%, with the strongest wage growth in more than 20 years. The $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the largest commitment to upgrade and expand US infrastructure in generations, followed last month. Now daily life has resumed a more normal footing. Classes are back, restaurants are open, and Christmas has come alive.

It was not all smooth sailing. On January 6, 2021, Trump allies attacked the US Capitol to prevent the official certification of Joe Biden’s election victory. Their violent coup attempt was intended to sow chaos and allow the procedural hijack of American democracy. It almost worked. Since then they have done all in their power to conceal their crimes, avoid accountability, and ensure that next time they succeed.

Meanwhile COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc. After an initial stampede for vaccinations the daily jab rate has slowed to a trickle as anti-vaxxers’ stubbornness holds the nation hostage.

Here are the main issues that will shape 2022.

The economy

“It’s the economy, stupid.” James Carville’s timeless quip never ages. The Biden boom is real and gathering steam, but that success has created its own headaches. Americans with money to spend have unleashed their pent-up demand, particularly for deferred goods purchases. This has caused supply chain bottlenecks as the global just-in-time manufacturing system reboots from a once-in-a-century pandemic.

The backlogs are compounded by a decades-long drive towards just-in-time delivery processes that leave little margin for delays, which then domino across every link in the chain. With consumer demand outstripping supply, and petrol prices soaring as OPEC cashes in, inflation has resurfaced to challenge policymakers.

The rate hit 6.8% in 2021, its highest level since 1982. Whether this is temporary and will abate once supply chain kinks are resolved, or a longer-term burden reflecting fundamental economic shifts, inflation will drive America’s political mood.

Voting rights

America is locked in a battle to preserve its democracy. Most Americans still don’t appreciate this. Nor do most foreigners. In state after state Republicans have exploited Trump’s “big lie” to rig future elections. They are manipulating voter laws and districts to tilt results in their favour, misrepresenting their fraud as motivated by “election integrity”. They are foxes guarding the henhouse.

Voters are powerless to stop them. The reactionary Supreme Court has granted them carte blanche. The last chance to avert their autocratic takeover lies with Congress. Federal voting rights legislation that would thwart their assault on democracy has passed the House of Representatives. It awaits consideration in the Senate. Republicans have used the filibuster to block its passage. Two Democrats, senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, hold the fate of the bills in their hands. Their choice on whether to preserve the filibuster, or preserve democracy, will set America’s course for decades.

January 6 Committee

The Watergate burglars were arrested on June 17, 1972. It took eight months before the Senate established a committee to investigate, and almost a year before the first public hearings were televised. In the interim, president Richard Nixon was reelected in a landslide. He carried 49 states. He lasted in office until August 1974, two years after the initial crime.

The moral is that the wheels of justice turn slowly, but they keep turning. The January 6 Committee has been working diligently for five months to probe Trump’s insurrection. Investigators have interviewed more than 300 witnesses, including many from the inner sanctum of the Trump administration. Already enough information has been gathered to confirm that the coup was an organised conspiracy that went to the very top.

Committee chairman Representative Bennie Thompson has announced that public hearings will be scheduled in the first quarter of 2022. This will be appointment viewing, on par with Watergate and Iran-Contra. Rest assured. Many of the plotters will go to prison.

Roe v Wade

This time next year abortion is likely to be all but banned in more than half of US states. The writing is on the wall. Half a century after Roe v Wade affirmed the right of American women to access safe, legal abortions, the Supreme Court’s anti-abortion judges have signalled their intent to strip that right. They have the numbers, precedent be damned.

Abortion has been effectively outlawed in Texas because the court refused to block an unconstitutional end run outright, instead punting the matter back to lower courts as a delaying tactic. Multiple Republican-ruled states have trigger laws on their books to ban abortion. These will become effective when the reversal is handed down.

What comes next is up for grabs. American women who vote Republican have long soothed themselves with their conviction that Roe would never be repealed, despite all the anti-abortion rhetoric. Will they revolt at this revanchist ruling? Or will they acquiesce, secure in the knowledge that they and their daughters will always have the means to access safe abortions in sanctuary states like California and New York? Republicans are betting on the latter.

Foreign policy

Having just ended America’s longest war after 20 years, Biden has no appetite for fresh military action. US rivals are testing his mettle. Russia has deployed troops along its border with Ukraine, a clear provocation and portent of possible invasion. Russia has been waging a guerilla campaign in Ukraine’s south-eastern Donbas region since 2014.

Elsewhere China has been flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Military drills, weapons tests and airspace incursions are all designed to escalate pressure on the US and underscore Chinese resolve.

In the Middle East, efforts to resume the Iran nuclear agreement are hampered by doubts about US reliability after Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the deal, as well as a hardening of Iranian demands.

And then there’s always North Korea lurking in the wings.

In response, the Biden administration has launched a full court press to redeem America’s global alliances and deploy robust diplomacy to deter any aggression. Diplomacy is often regarded as an afterthought in America. The first instinct of many is to ask where are the carriers? 2022 will demonstrate whether statecraft can be reinvigorated as an effective tool to defuse tensions.

COVID-19

Two years into the pandemic, America still has work to do. Average daily deaths exceed 1000, making COVID-19 the third leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer.

Despite all the noise and resistance from anti-vaxxers, most Americans have embraced the vaccines; 85% of adults have received at least one shot, and 72% are fully vaccinated. However, the holdouts and younger Americans still mean 90 million are unprotected. This leaves plenty of fodder for the virus to circulate and mutate.

The patience of the majority is wearing thin. Biden ordered vaccine mandates for the federal workforce and contractors. Many state and local officials have done the same for their employees. A logical next step would be to enforce vaccine mandates for travel. This would be easily verifiable, and would also restrict movement of the unvaccinated population. Limiting their travel would help curtail spread of the virus, and provide an incentive to accept the science.

It will probably take another year before America turns the tide on the pandemic. Until then new variants and periodic surges will inflict further carnage.

Climate

At the Glasgow COP26 summit, Joe Biden apologised on behalf of the United States for Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. He pledged sharp reductions in US carbon and methane emissions, and promised to help poorer countries pay for climate adaptation measures.

Biden has taken executive actions towards these goals. His next down payment awaits passage of the Build Back Better Act, which contains $555 billion in clean energy and climate provisions. This would be the largest investment to tackle climate change in US history. The bill has passed the House, and has been nearing final approval in the Senate.

However on Sunday Senator Manchin announced that he would not support the legislation, derailing months of negotiations with the White House and fellow Democrats. Without his vote, and with every Republican senator opposed as well, meaningful climate reform will be blocked yet again. Time will tell whether Manchin is bluffing to extract more concessions, or if this time he means what he says.

Midterm elections

No sooner was Biden sworn in than pundits starting discussing the midterm elections. For many observers, who wins the race is more compelling than what they do in office. In this vein the experts are all but anointing the Republicans as certain to regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms.

They may be right. After all, voters nearly always turn against a new president’s party at the subsequent poll. With the Democrats holding a slender four-vote majority, the odds appear stacked against them.

That a party that openly backed an insurrection against Congress might then be trusted to lead that institution seems surreal. It’s not a done deal yet. The truth is no one knows what will happen next November. Any one of the issues listed above could break the race wide open. Or myriad other factors might upend conventional wisdom.

Everyone thought the Red Sox would never win the World Series again. Until they did.