(Image: AAP/Mick Tsikas)

New daily COVID-19 cases have surged to 5612 in NSW and 2095 in Victoria while hitting the hundreds in other states. Test times have blown out, with many standing in line for hours. It is getting so bad that NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has told Sydneysiders to avoid getting tested as a precaution.

Hospital admissions are surging, with paramedics in NSW taking up to an hour to respond to calls. Restrictions have once again been introduced and many Christmas plans have been ruined. 

The Omicron variant has shown to be anywhere between 15-80% less likely to cause hospitalisation, with a 70% lower risk of severe disease than the Delta variant. This is good news — but news Australia still isn’t prepared for. 

So why is everything in shambles? Wasn’t this surge in case numbers exactly what was supposed to happen? 

What does the modelling say? 

November modelling from the Doherty Institute found 100 days after Australia’s international returns reached 40% of 2019 levels, combined with seven-day home quarantine, 80% vaccination rates, partial test, trace, isolate and quarantine measures, and baseline public health measures, new daily case numbers would be less than 1000.

Modelling provided to the national cabinet this week, leaked to media organisations, found as a worst-case scenario with Omicron, 200,000 new daily cases could be expected by late January. On the current trajectory, 25,000 new daily cases are expected. 

This huge leap in case numbers, Professor of Biostatistics at the University of South Australia Adrian Esterman told Crikey, is down to two things: limited public health measures and the transmissibility of Omicron. 

“​​Omicron has got a basic reproduction number much, much higher than Delta,” he said. “We should have delayed the easing of restrictions to find out more about Omicron, and we should have been ramping up health services.” 

Where are our other measures? 

Vaccines were never going to be the only solution to COVID-19 outbreaks. It’s always supposed to be vaccines and — vaccines combined with social distancing measures and isolating positive COVID-19 cases. 

But with testing times blown out to days, it’s up to those infected with COVID-19 to contact their social circles to let them know about their infection. 

This seems completely counterintuitive — by the time a positive test result comes back and social circles are identified, people are likely to have been infectious in the community for days. 

Worse, vaccines aren’t as effective against Omicron as they are for Delta. This morning it was announced booster doses will be administered starting at four months instead of five. 

Do we have a right to be surprised? 

While case numbers are much higher than the modelling predicted thanks to Omicron, it’s not all a surprise. A surge in cases was always going to be expected as people start travelling for Christmas, social restrictions were eased and mask mandates were removed. 

It’s not clear then why in the lead-up to Christmas so many major testing clinics have been shut down, including the Royal Melbourne Hospital, while other clinics in NSW have reduced their opening hours over the Christmas period. 

Esterman said a major reason was the lack of staff, with burnt-out nurses unable to staff the testing clinics. What the government should have done, he said, was train health assistants on how to protect themselves and administer PCR tests. 

“​A lot of government systems are incompetent,” Esterman said. “They should have been overhauling legislation, training staff and ramping up health and testing services.”