A poll like no other: is Australia ready for its first federal pandemic election?

Because Scott Morrison is yet to declare a date for the election, we don’t know when Australians will head to the polls. But what we do know is that it will be an election like no other.

Whether it is called for March or May (the latter more likely at this stage), the Australian Electoral Commission is bracing itself for a mammoth task as it pulls off its first national election in the midst of a pandemic.

With the close result expected, and predictions of a narrow victory or minority government swirling, the number of pre-poll votes, particularly postal, means there will be a “higher danger” of not having a result on election night, the AEC tells Crikey. 

But the issue is more complicated than that. The reality of a pandemic election is that everything will be slightly drawn out, from pre-polling and queues at polling booths to the result itself. 

So is the nation ready to vote? And what will a pandemic election look like?

What we can expect

Pre-poll

Voters shouldn’t be surprised if the uptake of postal votes means we’re left waiting a little longer to find out the winner. 

“Rates of early votes and postal votes rise during pandemic elections. How much we don’t know, but it will depend on the COVID situation at election time,” the AEC said. “With [fewer] votes in on election day, the number of seats still in question on election night likely goes up.”

The AEC’s task on election night is to report enough data for analysts and the media to confidently make calls, and lead to enough information to confirm who will form government. But with postal votes coming in past election day, and fewer votes cast on the day, that will cause it headaches.

Election day

As for logistics on the day, with various COVID protocols in place — including social distancing and regular cleaning — expect long queues and a slower process. The AEC expects to have 100,000 staff running the election, about 10,000 more than previous elections. This increase is largely to address processing and COVID demands, but also to continue the count beyond election day where necessary. 

Online voting

Online voting akin to what has been used by the NSW Electoral Commission is off the table for now. Federal electoral laws would need to change to allow for such a system, and the government hasn’t indicated any such plans. The iVote system used in the Sydney council elections was riddled with problems, and its lack of integrity is prompting potential delays in the NSW byelections.

Is the government ready?

In December laws were passed to ensure the election could take place amid an emergency declaration and allow for modifications such as additional time for pre-polling and expanded reasons for voters to apply for a postal vote.

When Crikey asked how prepared the government was for a pandemic election, Assistant Minister for Electoral Matters Ben Morton referred to the amendments but did not comment on what the government has done to ensure a smooth election. 

Labor’s Senator Don Farrell told Crikey that although the AEC would deliver an election professionally as always, conducting an election “efficiently and safely will be much more challenging because of Scott Morrison’s repeated failings”.