Morrisons — where bad polling numbers are just the beginning

The numbers are not good for Scott Morrison. The first Newspoll of 2022 has Labor ahead of the Coalition 56-44 on a two-party-preferred basis, the worst result for the government since the aftermath of the 2018 leadership spill. 

Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 41% and the government’s fell two points to 34%, a sign that a summer of high case numbers, widespread shortages of rapid antigen tests and empty supermarket shelves has left voters livid. 

And while Morrison has until May to claw his way back, holds the advantage of pandemic incumbency, and proved in 2019 that bad polls can be quickly forgotten, his government is running out of opportunities to turn the tide. 

The polling challenge

The 2019 election forced pundits and journalists to reevaluate their relationships with opinion polls. But while the only poll that matters is in May, what also matters is that right now none look good for the government.

Morrison’s net approval rating is now negative 19, his lowest since the aftermath of the bushfires in early 2020. Anthony Albanese’s approval is at net zero, but appears to be lifting. Morrison still leads as preferred prime minister, but it’s been trimmed to 43-41. And while Albanese has at times struggled to define a clear vision for his alternative prime ministership, he’s more popular than Bill Shorten was in the lead-up to 2019. 

It isn’t just Newspoll that should be worrying the government. A Resolve survey published last month in the Nine newspapers saw the Coalition’s primary vote fall to 34%, behind Labor (35%) for the first time since their polling began last year. Roy Morgan has consistently had Labor well ahead, and now puts it up 56-44% on a two-party-preferred basis.

Meanwhile, other polling shows independents making headway in corners of Sydney and Melbourne, forcing the government to potentially drain resources defending the Liberal heartland.

From here, a Morrison comeback would be unprecedented. No prime minister has rebounded from an eight-point Newspoll margin this close to an election. 

The political challenge

The weeks ahead won’t provide Morrison with an easy out. For much of last year, the government appeared to be hinging its reelection hopes on a normal, post-COVID summer. So far it’s been anything but.

His first big chance at a reset comes tomorrow when he delivers an address at the National Press Club. It’ll function as a big statement of the government’s pre-election vision, no doubt dropped out to favourable outlets ahead of time.

After that though, the government returns, reluctantly, for a parliamentary sitting fortnight next week. The final sittings of 2021 were chaotic and messy for the government. Expect no different.

Now a March election is off the cards, it has to try to ram through its contentious religious discrimination laws, with two parliamentary inquiries due to report on Friday. Any attempt to legislate it might run into a roadblock: conservative Liberal Senator Alex Antic is still vowing to withhold his vote unless the government takes action against “vaccine mandates”.

Alan Tudge, stood down from his role as education minister over allegations (which he denied) of an abusive affair, could be cleared to return to the frontbench. Seven days of question time, and four of Senate estimates will all bring more scrutiny to a government deeply uncomfortable with it.

And in the background, outside the bubble, the frustration about the handling of Omicron is yet to dissipate. Australia is still facing record daily COVID death tolls. Yesterday NSW Liberal Treasurer Matt Kean lashed his federal counterparts over their failure to provide business support. 

Small business, aged care and hospitals are all struggling. After the next sitting fortnight, Parliament won’t return until late March for a rushed pre-election budget — a last sugar hit before heading to the polls. 

Of course a lot can happen between now and the polls. Morrison will be hoping Australia’s Omicron wave falls away quickly. He knows the campaign trail is where he’s at his best. But with the government struggling, the country frustrated, and nowhere to hide in Parliament, it’s going to be a tough few months.