The seats in danger of going under water, politically

By limiting media access to his Lismore trip yesterday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison may have avoided another damning “Cobargo moment”. But the damage may have already been done. There’s widespread local anger at the perceived sluggishness of the federal response to floods — and that’s likely to hurt a government struggling in the polls.

From the NSW northern rivers to south-east Queensland and the inundated suburbs of Sydney, thousands of people have lived through a catastrophe which hit just two months out from a federal election. 

Where it matters

Just how badly will the government’s response to the floods hurt it at the ballot box? It’s a mixed bag around the country. Fortunately for the Coalition, Lismore, the epicentre of the NSW flooding, falls in the Nationals-held seat of Page.

Local MP Kevin Hogan, who’s been very present during the crisis, has a 9.4% margin. That should be enough to withstand lasting local anger. In Labor’s Patrick Deegan, Hogan faces a candidate he beat last time around. 

Neighbouring Richmond, which takes in flood-damaged areas like Ballina and Mullumbimby, is held by Labor’s Justine Elliot on a 4.1% margin, but the Coalition doesn’t yet have a candidate. 

In Queensland, the Coalition is fortunate to hold a sizable electoral cushion after its big swing in 2019. The LNP is in no real danger of losing its five seats on the Gold Coast. But around the state capital, electorates like Oxley, Moreton, Lilley, Blair, Griffith, Rankin (Labor), Petrie, Dickson, Longman and Brisbane (Coalition) have all been flood-damaged.

The latter two are high on Labor’s list of target seats, with margins of 3.3% and 4.9% respectively. And while many of Labor’s seats around suburban Brisbane are held on tight margins, prominent local MPs like Terri Butler and Annika Wells are likely to be safe. The Coalition doesn’t have candidates for Wells’ seat Lilley (Queensland’s most marginal electorate) and nearby Rankin, held by Labor’s Jim Chalmers. 

On the whole, the government would need a big reversal in fortunes to gain seats in Queensland, where it’s at its electoral high point. The response to the floods, which Queensland Labor politicians such as Senator Murray Watt have jumped on as a sign of its incompetence, won’t help.

Meanwhile, a recent poll published in the Courier-Mail found support for the government dwindling in Queensland since 2019. Roy Morgan has the parties neck and neck, a big drop for the LNP since 2019.

The floods could also affect the government’s fortunes in parts of Sydney which were particularly badly hit in this week’s deluge. On the northern beaches where key bridges were flooded, it needs to win back Warringah from independent MP Zali Steggall, and in neighbouring Mackellar, Jason Falinski faces a stiff challenge from another independent, Sophie Scamps.

In those affluent areas, where climate matters to voters, the floodwaters could spell another reminder of the Morrison government’s reluctance on emissions reduction. It’s also another reason why Warringah, once Tony Abbott’s safe seat, could be out of reach — factional infighting means the Liberals still don’t have a candidate.

In Macquarie, the most marginal seat in the country (Labor 0.2%), which covers flood-affected parts of Sydney’s west and north-west, Liberal candidate Sarah Richards was out calling for the Warragamba Dam wall to be raised.

Labor calls out pork-barrelling

Of course, the floods alone won’t necessarily shift votes in all these seats. But they could harden perceptions around the country — formed during the bushfires, vaccine rollout and Omicron wave — of a government behind the curve in a crisis.

Meanwhile, Labor is already alleging favouritism in the government’s response. While Morrison offered extra disaster support to local government areas in the northern rivers, Ballina, Byron and Tweed, all those in Labor-held Richmond missed out. Elliot called it “disgusting” and an “outrage”.

Last week Labor claimed Services Australia support had focused on areas in the LNP-held marginal of Longman, leaving neighbouring Labor electorates behind.

The Coalition forcefully denied this, with Government Services Minister Linda Reynolds calling it “cheap politics”. But with deep fury across flood-affected communities, and a sense the government was once again slow to act, expect plenty more attacks of this kind between now and the election.

Is it just cynical to believe the Morrison government is supporting Coalition-held seats? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.