You didn’t have to look long to find winners in Josh Frydenberg’s fourth budget, a pre-election cash splash designed to target cost-of-living pressures and to reverse the Morrison government’s waning political fortunes.
And like any pre-election budget, this was pitched right at working families, who stand the most to gain from some of the biggest spending measures. They’ll be the main beneficiaries of a $420 increase of the low- and middle-income tax offset, giving up to 10 million people a tax reduction of up to $1500, at a cost of $4.1 billion over the forward estimates.
As flagged over the weekend, there’s a one-off $250 cost-of-living payment, to 6 million recipients of various government payments, worth $1.5 billion.
Then there’s the halving of fuel excise for the next six months, a symbolic measure that may not even be passed on to consumers, at the cost of $5.6 billion.
People with a range of illnesses, such as breast cancer and cystic fibrosis, will benefit from $2.4 billion in spending to list new medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). On the mental health front, there’s an additional $547 million in targeted investment.
There’s also some relief for people in flood-hit communities on the east coast, who will get $6 billion in recovery funding, albeit far too late for many.
Once again, there’s a big boost for apprentices, with a $2.8 billion investment to provide payments for new apprentices and subsidies to employers.
And as usual, there’s plenty for the regions, such as the $2 billion Regional Accelerator Program to help regional business grow, which is totally not going to get pork-barrelled. Speaking of pork-barrelling, there’s $7.4 billion for Nationals-friendly dams, including $5.4 billion for Hells Gate Dam in North Queensland.
Watch the government’s big $17.9 billion infrastructure spending for more whiffs of pork, particularly with Queensland getting the most assistance, with NSW and Victoria missing out proportionate to population.
So who exactly loses here? Expenditure on higher education is set to decrease 5.4% since last year, and 3.6% by 2025-26, in spite of a $2.2 billion plan for research commercialisation. Foreign aid, another area frequently abandoned by governments of both stripes, is set to fall 19% over the forward estimates, reflecting the end of additional COVID-related support to the Pacific, just days after a Chinese security pact with the Solomon Islands sent defence circles into a tailspin.
While an extra 50,000 mostly young Australians trying to break into the housing market will benefit from an extension of the Home Guarantee Scheme, allowing them to buy a home with a 5% deposit, it’s little comfort for people locked out because the market is simply too cooked.
As Crikey writes elsewhere, aged care is also a big loser, with the government’s total forecast spending for services in sthe besieged sector increasing by less than 1% compared to the 2021-22 budget.
But losers in this budget are few and far between. That’s the point — the government has an election to win.
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