Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce, and Country Liberal Party candidates Jacinta Price (R), Tina McFarlane and Damien Ryan (Image: AAP/Aaron Bunch)

Since the election campaign kicked off last week, most media eyeballs have been trained on Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. That’s meant that the National Party — the government’s junior Coalition partner, hugely influential in setting its agenda on regional issues and climate policy — has flown largely under the radar.

In part, that’s thanks to the return of Barnaby Joyce to the deputy prime ministership last year. The man known for some strange reason as “Australia’s best retail politician” is politically toxic, particularly in many urban areas. He and Morrison haven’t campaigned together. Instead, Joyce has been out sandbagging seats in the regions, splashing plenty of cash on the way — and giving us an indication of where the Nationals are both optimistic and vulnerable. 

The Wombat Trail (as the Nationals campaign is known) kicked off in regional Victoria, where Nationals’ Damian Drum is retiring as the member for Nicholls. Drum held the seat on a 20% margin, but the party is worried about an independent challenge from popular Greater Shepparton deputy mayor Rob Priestly. 

He’s promising to campaign on Murray-Darling water issues and integrity, in a seat which could now become a tight three-cornered contest with Nationals candidate Sam Birrell and Liberal Stephen Brooks. It’s also an area where Joyce is personally disliked.

Up next, the DPM headed to the top end, where the Coalition have been talking up their chances of flipping the Territory’s two Labor-held seats. The retirement of Labor veteran Warren Snowdon puts Lingiari (margin 5.5%) in play, with long-term Alice Springs mayor Matt Paterson forcing a tough contest.

The Nats were also hoping to pork-barrel their way to victory in Solomon (Labor 3.1%), where Joyce was joined by Nationals Deputy Leader David Littleproud to announce a $1.5 billion extension to Darwin’s port facilities, a huge boost for fossil fuel exporters. There was also an announcement of $440 million on logistics hubs, which would accelerate the export of gas and minerals.

Although toxic in the cities, Joyce is far more of an asset to the government in coal country. The next stop on the trail was the Hunter, an area with historic ties to coal, where the Coalition hopes to nab three seats — Hunter, Paterson and Shortland, which swung against Labor in 2019.

There, another big announcement of $55 million for Newcastle Airport, made alongside the Nationals candidate for Hunter James Thomson, and Liberal hopefuls Nell McGill (Shortland) and Brooke Vitnell (Paterson).

Up next, Joyce notably spent a fair bit of time and money in Central Queensland, where the party has splashed $200 million worth of infrastructure.

Particularly crucial is the seat of Flynn, targeted by Labor. While the Coalition has a comfortable 8.7% margin thanks to the anti-Shorten swing of 2019, local MP Ken O’Dowd is retiring, and Labor are running a strong candidate in popular Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett.

Taking in both mining towns, and the Labor stronghold of Gladstone, it’s a key litmus test for whether the opposition can win back blue-collar voters who deserted it at the last election.

The LNP are putting up Colin Boyce, a classic Nat who last year promised to publicly campaign against the government’s own net zero emissions policy. Big cash splashes in the electorate included $15 million for road infrastructure, and $2.5 million to upgrade facilities for a local football club in Gladstone.

Most recently, Joyce was in Mackay, announcing a $5 million veterans wellbeing centre. It’s in Dawson, another seat the LNP has on a big margin, but George Christensen’s defection to One Nation’s Senate ticket might give Labor a glimmer. In neighbouring Capricornia, held by Michelle Landry, there was a $10 million upgrade to Rockhampton Airport.

If the Coalition can retain its 23 seats in Queensland on May 21, it’ll make it all the more difficult for Labor to win. And in parts of the Sunshine State, Joyce’s presence is key to that effort.