In case the images of the treasurer campaigning on the line at an early voting booth weren’t enough of a giveaway, Josh Frydenberg is in trouble.
A YouGov poll published in The Australian has him on track to lose the Liberal heirloom of Kooyong (represented by Robert Menzies and Andrew Peacock no less) to independent challenger Monique Ryan.
Ryan has momentum, a well-resourced volunteer army, and she put in a strong performance at a candidates debate last week. Our sources tell us there are more Ryan corflutes than Frydenberg ones on the treasurer’s own street.
At a press conference today, Prime Minister Scott Morrison evaded questions about his future treasurer: “That’s not something I’m speculating on because I know Josh will be returned.”
So we’re doing the speculating for him.
Frydenberg technically leads Victoria’s “ambition faction” that’s loosely aligned with Morrison’s centre-right grouping. But ideologically he’s seen as a more moderate type than many on the Liberal frontbench. His loss would trigger a dramatic shift within the party.
First, let’s war-game a few scenarios. If Morrison hangs on and Frydenberg loses, his coveted spot as treasurer becomes vacant. Defence Minister Peter Dutton would firm up as Morrison’s heir apparent for the leadership, creating potential for succession-plan tension between the two as the term grows stale.
Dutton as treasurer seems an odd fit considering he enjoys the bluntness of Defence, but given his influence within the party the portfolio would be his for the taking.
Other potential contenders come from Frydenberg’s own grouping. Michael Sukkar, a leading Victorian powerbroker and current assistant treasurer and housing minister would be in the mix. So would Trade Minister Dan Tehan.
Alex Hawke, a close ally of the PM and leader of the centre-right faction, would undoubtedly rise under a reelected Morrison government, although his personal brand has taken a hit in NSW after widespread infighting over preselections.
A slightly more likely scenario would be a Frydenberg loss and a Labor win. In that instance, it’s hard to imagine Kooyong being the only seat swept away in the teal wave. If the teals pick up more than one seat, it would represent a dramatic shift in the party’s base, with the most affluent areas of the country no longer assured Liberal territory.
Of course, there’s every chance the teal wave could be a one-hit wonder, a protest vote against the Morrison government’s foot-dragging on climate change and integrity issues. But with Frydenberg gone, and Morrison an election-loser, it would all but pave the way for Dutton to assume leadership of the Coalition.
Dutton is more conservative and less obviously pragmatic than Morrison. He’s also a highly divisive figure in the cities. Any remaining urban moderates would get nervous about their futures. Dutton would be likely to continue with a turbocharged version of Morrison’s “suburban strategy”, tying the party’s electoral future to outer mortgage belts, regional centres and mining communities.
With the party’s focus shifting, it would be increasingly difficult for moderates to exert their influence over the party at a federal level. Already underrepresented among its most vocal, senior figures, there is no clear moderate candidate for the leadership, or Treasury.
The most senior figures include two senators — Finance Minister Simon Birmingham and Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne — who’d be unable step into the leadership. That leaves Paul Fletcher, perhaps not an obvious leadership contender, but a potential candidate for Treasury in any scenario.
Naturally this is all deeply speculative. Alliances shift, and election results have a way of bringing about seismic change within political parties. However, it’s clear Frydenberg’s fight isn’t just about Kooyong, but the very future of the Liberal Party.
Good riddance if Frydenberg loses his seat.
He is the Treasurer who resisted calling the Hayne Royal Commission into his former colleagues in the big banks and has been assiduously watering down its recommendations ever since. He learned nothing from the economic crisis of the last couple of years, going back to neo-liberal business-as-usual and keeping wages low. He gave $38 billion to companies that didn’t need it in Jobkeeper. He reportedly personally bullied AGL to try to stop them shutting down a coal-fired power station. A strong candidate for the title of Australia’s worst treasurer, despite some strong competition for that title. Nor can he have been unaware of the corruption and industrial-scale rorting going on all around him in the Morrison government, and as a senior member of the government and the man who oversees the budget process, he should carry a larger share of responsibility for the rottennes of the government than most.
Not to mention the fact that Dr Ryan seems to be a very impressive person, who actually wants greater INTEGRITY in politics. For that to happen, the Morrison-Joyce-Frydenberg government has to be defeated as soundly as possible.
Well said. He’s my local member and what he says he believes in changes depending on who he is talking to and he seems to be rather ideas- free. And his voting record doesn’t suggest a moderate.
The minority Liberal Party that relies on the support of the Nats / CP to govern must be the worst government we have had since Federation. There are a few ministers without integrity doubts over them and the terms Liar,Rorter.Thief are often used locally and internationally to describe some of the most senior ministers.
As the country and the planet face a crisis this is no time for a Morrison-led minority government to be allowed to lie and rort as the likes of the fat coal miner and the greedy grandmother rort out resources and the multinationals make billions and pay no tax
We need a change of government an ICAC and a new Canberra prison.
One less Smirker
Looking at the line up for the Lib/ Nats /CP Minority government “Good Riddance” would be easy to apply to most of the front bench. If you get rid of the dead wood there will be little left.
Rorters and liars out, ICAC in Rorters at the new Canberra prison
I don’t agree that there’s “every chance the teal wave could be a one-hit wonder”. It seems to me that there has been an underlying, if slow, reaction against the brand of conservatism of the current LNP, as there has been a gradual rise in concern about its climate change denialism, its lack of integrity and its chauvinism. And I think that a combination of those emerging concerns, Climate 200 and the LNP’s defensive tactics has elevated the ‘teal’ independents to the status of a significant voting option. And bear in mind that Cathy MacGowan, Kerryn Phelps, Helen Haines and Zalli Steggall are already better known that most party back benchers. The trend will continue, one fervently hopes..
Absolutely correct. Once Indies get in, they are generally very hard to dislodge so long as they stay true to their message and as other voters realise that the sky hasn’t fallen in.
That may well be true, Jason…but what have they actually achieved? Like it or not, we have two (?three) parties of government in this country…Labor and Liberal/Nationals. You could argue that IF they hold the balance of power, then they might achieve something…but that happens very rarely in this land…and I have problems with a small number of Independents or Greens dictating policy to a near-majority government representing ten times the numbers of voters. How is that even democratic!!
The dopy Nationals with half the national vote of the Greens already controls the Libs! Unlike the Greens and the Teals who show a solid reaction to science and reality
The National Party dictate policy and they have far fewer votes than the Greens, and Balance of Power is just that, their power only manifests if the Major Parties line are divided on an issue.
The 3 major right wing parties get less 1st pref votes than the 2 major left wing parties yet we’ve had right wing govt for 20 of the last 26 years. For about the same % of votes, the Nats get 20 odd seats in the lower house vs The Greens 1.
I’d rather have the ‘teals’ dictating policy rather than cosplay Canavan, Beetrooter, Rennick, Pitt, McKenzie, etc.
I don’t really understand the broader imbalance in numbers of votes relative to numbers of seats. Greens currently have 11.88% of the vote (1,379,600 votes), with 2 seats. The Coalition has 35.7% of the vote (4,145,149 votes) yet they have 51 seats! So Greens have about 1/3 of the number of votes as the Coalition has, yet the Coalition has 17 TIMES their number of seats!
How is that fair, just or democratic? Is one person’s vote for Greens only worth 1/17th as much as another person’s vote for LNP?
And what about the privileged role of the pipsqueak Nationals if the LNP had won? Only a piddling little 4.06% of the vote, with 9 seats. Then that tiny little 4% is given the Deputy Prime Minister role and power, and even becomes acting Prime Minister if required … though only chosen by 4% of voters!! What about the rights of the other 96%?
One example, McGowan achieved long overdue action on telco ‘blackspots’ in her seat. Try dialling Triple 0 when you have NO mobile coverage.
How is it democratic that a party currently running at 18% in my state, currently has no representation,
Gillard managed (rather spectacularly) a hung parliament. Part of the reason was her statesmanlike skills that saw her treating Independents with courtesy and respect. Oakshot and Windsor eschewed Abbot and threw their lot behind Gillard because of Abbot’s contemptuous early treatment of them. He couldn’t help himself. Hung parliaments DO NOT have to be the end of the world. A continuation of the unhung LNC government though, would be.
Don’t forget that Albanese despite his voting against Rudd’s spill, was the manager of government business then and was the wrangler who pulled the non-government members into line when necessary for the most successful legislative era in recent times.
At the 2019 election the Nationals got 642k votes and 10 seats, while the Greens got 1.4 million votes and 1 seat. How is that even democratic?
Try telling the supporters of Brian Harradine that having a casting vote was bad for Tasmania or the Catholic Church.
PS I Did down vote you
A 49% to 51% vote could be classed as a democratically elected dictatorship with a full term to create a country in its own image or more importantly to suit its benefactors. A minority government is more likely to represent the views of a higher percentage of the population and a collegiate minority government appears to work well in Norway one of the richest and most socially balanced countries in the world .We have given away our national resources to the same multinational companies that the Norwegian government demanded a fair price for its resources and received.
Strange how many of our politicians are employed by multinationals soon after leaving Australian politics Recent examples could be candidates for our new ICAC stockings included
I agree that the teals, if elected, will not be a one-hit wonder. I think they are more likely to be like McGowan/Haines in Indi and Steggall in Warringah and survive several election rounds, maybe becoming a more permanent fixture in the political landscape.
Plus without the more moderate Libs like Sharma, Zimmerman, Frydenberg, Wilson – the ones most in danger of defeat by teals – the Lib party will move to the right and become even more unelectable because of its anti-climate policies. Some Libs, such as Teen McQueen, have already said how they would welcome such a rightwards move.
Not much evidence of the influence of those “moderates” on the Libs so far.
McGowan’s successful handover to Haines and her influence on the broader voices of movement this election cycle make me feel more confident that this won’t be a flash in the pan – there’s a workable model for ongoing independent representation being developed, particularly in the areas where the abject failure of the Nats to actually represent the local community has become a big factor. They’ll also force traditionally conservative seats to think long and hard about what their support is worth – a credible threat of going independent will be seen as a real power play by the people who used to be core supporters of the lib/nat establishment.
In effect, the independents will take on the role of keeping the conservative side of politics honest, and more power to them for it.
Wilson is a hard line IPA apparatchik . In what universe does that qualify as “moderate”?
What chance a True ‘liberal’ Party? In the event of a Labor /Green win and a lurch to the right by Dutton et al,, could a figure like Malcolm Turnbull have a chance of drawing together Teals with ousted and remnant moderates to form a coherent centre right party?.
Interesting concept.
Except that the teals are almost all women – strong, intelligent, independent, successful in their own right.
Don’t think they’d welcome a man who didn’t have the guts to do what was needed to bring the cons into the 21st century in their midst, let alone as a leader. These women walk the talk. Malcolm only ever talked.
How about a Green / Teal / Green / Teal swathe cut through the tired old parties in SE Melbourne: Macnamara, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong.
A very real, and very welcome, prospect.
The “Great Green Victory” promised to us every election, and never materialising is not going to happen this time either. Liberal preferences go to Labor before the Greens. Bye bye Greens. Even in Higgins it’s a tall ask. The green bits around Prahran perhaps, but out towards Malvern and Glen Iris? Not going to happen.
The highly intelligent women CEO’s of AFL clubs have been responsible for winning the last six flags. They replaced a number of sexist boozing backslappers and with the club as number one priority won the flags .
I see the brilliant “voices of ” women wiping the floor with some of the same group of men who ran the football clubs When they do this country will have a chance of again being able to stand proud on the world scene
The ‘moderate’ Liberals are a farce. Because they have been incapable of delivering policy outcomes (while part of a government) that align with the desires of their electorates, the voters are lining-up to take effective action. Some regional seats have already progressed down this path. Frydenberg has taken his electorate for ‘granted’ and is facing the consequences.
Frydenberg doesn’t even qualify as a genuine Liberal “moderate”, being aligned with the Morrison-Hawke Centre Right – “power at any price” – faction.
Exactly. When has he ever crossed the floor or even just spoken in mild sympathy with true moderates over issues like climate, same sex marriage or the religious discrimination bill? He’s 100% in step with Morrison, Taylor, Cash, Robert, Barnaby etc. His constant criticism of his own state, and Andrews in particular, during the big Victorian lockdown in 2020 did not go down well, and almost certainly not in his own electorate, and I’d reckon lost him a lot of votes right then and there. The ‘Treasurer for NSW’.
Frydenberg was a staffer in Downer’s office. Downer only employed Conservatives. Sharma and Kenny are two more.
A farce is right. The so-called ‘moderate’ Liberal MP in my electorate – supposedly the most marginal in the country – was blathering on yesterday on local ABC radio attempting to justify her decision to remain in the Liberal Party, despite gaining national notoriety by crossing the floor on a couple of issues. How much of that was sheer politicking in order to raise her profile (and garner support in her electorate) I’ll leave to one side for the moment, but she lost me, and hopefully many others, when she said the Liberals aligned with her values. By continuing to support a party and a PM who’s a serial liar, takes no responsibility, dismisses the concerns of women, has overseen and arguably endorsed the massive rorting of public money, etc, etc, Bridget has hopefully scuppered her re-election chances. Sure she’s been a good, hard-working and effective representative in Bass, but choosing to stick with the Liberals says a lot about her own values. And it’s not complimentary. So hope voters will take on board that ‘a vote for Bridget is a vote for Morrison’, if they really want to see the back of him.
You’d imagine if the coalition lose, and she hangs on, she’ll quickly join the crossbench
What hasn’t been discussed in this article is, should the ALP win, how many of the current Ministry will survive Federal anti-corruption commission scrutiny.
It has been suggested to me that all of the Cabinet members should hand their passports to the ANAO for ‘safe keeping’ until the an ICAC is in place.
‘Some chief went to prison to see the Prime Minister and said “mate, your mob can dig it all up and drop it over the edge of the world, no worries”
‘Why did he have to go to prison?’
‘We put all our politicians in prison as soon as they’re elected. Don’t you?’
‘Why?’
‘It saves time.’
Terry Pratchett, The Last Continent
“Welcome colleagues to this, the inaugural meeting of the Goulburn SuperMax Branch of the Liberal Party”