Flying under the radar: some key election contests you may have missed

Yesterday we looked at the key seats both major parties hope to win in their quest to form government. But there are plenty of other interesting and tight contests flying under the radar that could have a huge impact on Saturday night’s result. Here’s our breakdown of others to keep an eye on.

Labor shock losses

Kristina Keneally could be in trouble in Fowler. Remember, after being bumped down the Senate ticket, Labor’s home affairs spokeswoman was parachuted into the diverse, working-class south-west Sydney seat at the expense of a Vietnamese-Australian candidate, Tu Le.

Now, Dai Le, a Vietnamese-Australian former Liberal, is running as an independent, and although Labor is fairly confident of holding the electorate, recent polling saw Keneally’s primary vote in freefall.

Over in Kevin Rudd’s former inner-Brisbane seat of Griffith, the Greens are pushing for an upset. Labor’s Terri Butler holds it on a 2.9% margin, but buoyed by successes in the area at state and local elections, the Greens believe they’re in with a serious chance of winning a second seat in the House of Representatives. 

The non-teal independents

Not all independents are dressed in greenish-blue. In the regional Victorian seat of Nicholls, independent Rob Priestly could spring a surprise. The Nationals hold the seat by a huge 20%, but both the retirement of sitting MP Damian Drum and anti-Barnaby sentiment in that part of the world have put it in play.

It’s now expected to be a close three-cornered race between Priestly, the Nationals’ Sam Birrell and Liberal Steve Brooks.

Over in South Australia, independent Liz Habermann is trying to win back the vast regional seat of Grey from the Liberals, who’ve held it since 1993. Habermann very nearly won the nearby seat of Flinders at the SA state election in March after a sizeable swing, and is hoping to build off that platform.

The long-shot Labor gains

If Labor has a very good night, there are a few more surprise seats it could pick up. Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s schedule for the final days of the campaign includes a visit to Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson (LNP +4.6%) — Labor has talked this one up in the past, but hasn’t been able to win it back.

The Victorian seat of Deakin, held by Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar on a 4.7% margin, is also on the list. So is Sturt, in South Australia (Lib +6.9%), which covers an area where the Liberals suffered huge swings at the state election. In NSW, the suburban Sydney seat of Banks (Lib +6.3%) is also an outside chance.

One seat not on that list is Page, which takes in parts of northern NSW worst affected by recent floods. While the Nationals’ Kevin Hogan has a 9.5% margin, anger at the government’s response to that crisis could put a dent in that, with seat polling putting the Coalition lead at just 51-49.