Who’s next for madame guillotine?

Former prime minister Scott Morrison says that he’s staying in politics: he won’t be going anywhere. Well, of course. He has a servant’s heart, will go wherever God wants him to be, the Lodge or the backbench.

But also, of course, his seat of Cook has now gone from super-safe to merely “safe”, and who knows what could happen in a byelection? Were ScoMo’s departure to be the occasion of an upstart loss, his reputation would be shot, and the already substantial dislike of him would turn to a hatred that would seriously impact his post-parliamentary career.

Elsewhere, the change of government and the prospect that Labor might have a reasonable chance — surely, dear God — of running at least two terms, will concentrate the minds towards getting out of the miserable meatpuppet racket of opposition. Usually, a few of those in safer seats could be relied upon to move on, in part to free up spots so that Joshie can get a seat, having accidentally dropped the Liberal Party crown jewels down a road grating.

Trouble is, there are virtually no safe seats remaining for the Liberal Party per se (plenty for the LNP and Nationals). So the survivors have to stay in place, no matter how over it they are (and vice versa). With the party’s projection of a future weakening day by day comes the grand question: who’s next! Here’s a list of possibilities.

In Victoria, there are two very possible byelections, and one cheeky one:

Aston: this outer-eastern Melbourne seat runs from mid-outer suburban Boronia to the exurban/German restaurant Dandenongs. It was once safe on a 60/40 two-party-preferred vote, but Alan Tudge took the equal worst two-party-preferred swing against in the state at 7% (and a raw swing of 12%) and now sits on 53/47. The Greens got a 3% swing to 11.7%. There was no community independent candidate; TNL ran, but due to the AEC-forced name change (from “The New Liberals”) nobody has a clue who they are, and they got 1%.

Tudge’s career is not certainly over, but it’s pretty likely. His affair with a staffer, which resulted in allegations of abuse (which he denies), has worked in Barnaby’s favour, but these are different conditions. He suffered the largest (1000+) booth swings anywhere — 20% in Boronia, a mix of changing demography and disapproval. No word yet on whether he’s back in the opposition ministry, for education, or whether Simon Birmingham is the world’s first shadow shadow minister. Tudge is in his mid-50s. Jump in the next year and a new chapter of life is possible. And he’s made his 12 years for that sweet sweet super! Ride the party down to 2025, maybe lose the seat, and it’s going to look a bit sad.

M’colleague Bernard Keane thinks that Tudge could go, in order to reseat Josh Frydenberg (thus winning Tudge the gratitude of the party in his future endeavours). With all due respect, that is crackers. Should there be a byelection, a community independent would surely run. Another tranche of liberal Libs would peel off, as would those pissed off at a candidate being parachuted in. Putting Josh in could decisively lose the seat. Nevertheless, Alan, time to go. Think of yourself for, ha, a change.

Monash: Further east, basically West Gippsland, Monash is held by Russell Broadbent. Russell’s 71, and is an alt “father of the House”, being elected in 1990 but in and out through the 1990s. A member of surf-pop (I’m guessing) band the TruTones before entering politics, a remaining moderate (and vaccine-critical, hmmm), he has more super than Croesus, and a new treechange pad in Queensland, according to Wikipedia. Russell! Buy yourself that Stratocaster and head north, sooner rather than later. Your duty to your constituents and your party is done. No man knoweth the hour, mate. If you’re hanging around out of loyalty, waiting for Labor to hit a rough patch before taking the seat to a byelection, you may wait a long — ha, who I am kidding, it’ll be here in six months. Take it when it comes.

Wannon: Malcolm Fraser’s old seat is basically the Western District. Dan Tehan held it, with 55% two-candidate-preferred after a 6% swing against him, with rural independent Alex Dyson gaining 20%. Totally gettable next time, especially as he’s a legacy MP (mother Marie was a Victorian Liberal mover and shaker), and seems a bit dim. Could he be persuaded out early? He has been talked of as deputy leadership material, but only by people who then laugh. He was trade minister and ex-diplo corps. Would he return to his career, if something good were possible? Paris or Rome? He can’t be offered it to go, bribery nyah nyah nyah, but they could, you know, put a delicious osso buco outside his window, sing “Non, je ne regrette rien” down the phone at him. Essentially (don’t) make him an offer he can’t refuse his wife.

The rest:

Western Australia: Slim pickings, as all three remaining Liberal non-outback seats are on 54/46. But in Forrest (south of Perth) Lola Martino, there since 2007, is 68. That’s young these days, but my God woman, your fellow WA federal reps are Andrew Hastie and Ian Goodenough. Treat yourself, you’ve earnt it! Retire at 70! No one is going anywhere.

Queensland: Leichhardt will surely go when Warren Entsch departs, but he’s a soldier and will stay at his post to the end, and, well, Queensland Labor can stuff anything up. With Brisbane called, the Greens now have three seats in Queensland, to Labor’s five. Queensland Labor will presumably now redouble its efforts to fight the Greens.

Tasmania: 404.

Drumroll, NSW:

New England: Surely, the Beaten Beeter will not stick around. Barnaby has multiple families to support, two at the time of writing. He was moaning about the reduced salary during his tenure on the backbench; he’s not going to accept three years of it. Like most Nats, he may well be off to coal and gas, while there’s still some money in it. When Tony Windsor got it in 2001, he was a state-level political hero, and the sitting member was a drone. He halved the Nat vote to jump ahead. Today, huge community networks remain that arose during the Adani/CSG/etc struggles. What’s Beeter’s incumbency premium, 8%-10%? Another 15%, and 5%-10% from Labor, and it’s done. It would all be in the right candidate.

Cook: ScoMo has promised he’ll stay, so presume he’s going. The 8% raw swing against his 2019 64% first preference appears to have gone rightwards, to the right-wing minors, coming back for a 64% two-party-preferred. This electorate contains Sylvania Waters and Cronulla, good God. However, prime ministers can get a double incumbency bonus, which swings against them when they go — 16% in Wannon after Fraser departed in 1975, 18% in Lalor after Gillard left, 20% against Hawke in 1992. Even if some of ScoMo’s bonus has already swung right, there may be another 5%-10% in there. Given the right’s control of that Liberal branch, its new candidate will probably be Rodrigo Duterte, which would help. A centrist, mildly right, community independent would only need another 10%-12%, taken from the right, for the Libs to be cooked.

Wouldn’t that just be the best? No, no it would not. The best would be Josh standing in Aston and losing twice. And then a third time in Wannon. Joshie, like ScoMo, ain’t going anywhere, just in a different way.